政府补贴能提高农民的养老保险缴费积极性吗?--基于增量贴现效用模型的模拟分析  

Can Government Subsidies Increase Farmers’Willingness Towards Pension Contribution?A Simulation Analysis Based on Discount Incremental Utility Model

作　　者：张宁[1] 李旷奇 Zhang Ning;Li Kuangqi(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《经济科学》2020年第3期123-136,共14页Economic Science

基　　金：湖南省社科基金项目“我国长期护理保险制度‘跨度融合’路径研究”(项目编号:18YBA454);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目“城乡居民基本养老保险制度优化研究”(项目编号:17B286);湖南大学研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神专项“城乡一体化养老保险制度构建研究”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：当前对城乡居民养老保险的财政补贴逐年提升,而个人缴费占基金收入的比重却在逐年下降,这说明财政补贴制度并未完全发挥缴费激励效应。为探求补贴政策与农民缴费档次选择间的关系,本文在定义补贴政策变量的基础上,建立了刻画农民参保决策过程的增量贴现效用模型。本文通过变动单个补贴变量进行补贴变量敏感性分析,并从当前各地城乡居保实践中总结五种补贴政策模式进行补贴政策情境模拟。研究结果表明:累进补贴能激励参保农民选择更高的缴费档次,但基础养老金增长过快会"挤出"农民的缴费积极性,适时调升最低缴费档次是优化补贴政策结构的必然选择。The financial subsidy for urban and rural residents’basic old-age insurance is increasing yearly today,while the proportion of individual contribution to revenue of the pension funds is decreasing over time.This paper uses a discount incremental utility model which describes the insurance decision-making process of farmers to explore the relationship between the subsidy policy and farmers’willingness to pay for insurance.We then conduct sensitivity analysis of subsidy variables and subsidy policy scenarios simulation.The findings suggest that progressive subsidies can encourage the insured farmers to choose a higher level of contribution,while the trend of excessively rapid growth of basic pension would“crowd out”farmers’willingness to pay.As a result,it is the inevitable choice to raise the minimum contribution level in order to achieve the optimal subsidy policy structure.

关 键 词：城乡居保 政府补贴 缴费行为 增量贴现效用模型 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]