产业结构与对外政策选择:英国、美国和德国的历史经验  

Industrial Structure and Foreign Policy Making:A Comparative Study of the UK-US and the UK-Germany Relations in the Pre-WWI Era

作　　者：王玮[1] WANG Wei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2020年第2期60-79,124,125,共22页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：产业结构会影响对外政策偏好,造就国家基本利益观念,并长期影响国家对外政策的选择。19世纪末,英国产业优势受到来自美国和德国的挑战,世界经济体系中出现了三足鼎立格局。英国作为主导工业国,大量进口农产品和原材料并出口工业制成品,在国际贸易中保持了长期顺差。此时,美国依然是农产品和原材料出口大国,也是工业品进口国,制造业发展集中在消费品领域。英美之间存在经济互补关系,双方得以保持关系稳定。与之相反,德国优先发展重工业,经济结构与英国日益趋同,在国际经济活动中与英国形成替代关系。英德之间的同质竞争影响了英国对德认知,激化了两国围绕殖民地的争夺,并最终使英德两国的对抗成为“自我实现的预言”。Industrial structure sets priorities for foreign policy making,constructs the mindsets of national interest perception,and therefore continuously shapes the national decision-making process.By the late 19th century,the British industrial advantage encountered fierce competitions from both Germany and the United States.During this period,the three countries played the leading role in the world economic system.The Britain as the then-leading industrialized economy imported agricultural produces and raw materials and exported manufactured products,maintaining trade surplus for a century.The United States at the time imported industrial products,exported agricultural produces and raw materials,and manufactured basically consumer commodities,providing a good supplement for the British economy.Germany,by contrast,attached great importance to the heavy industry,converged structurally with the British economy,and thus created a substitutive relation with Britain.This homogeneous competition sharpened their mutual antagonism,intensified their contests over the economically or strategically important areas,and eventually led the UK-Germany confrontation a self-fulfilling prophecy.

关 键 词：产业结构 对外政策 外交关系 英美关系 英德关系 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]