不可均衡风险与全国社会保障基金的养老水平  

Unbalanced Risk and Old-Age Care Level of the National Social Security Fund

作　　者：穆怀中[1] Mu Huaizhong

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学人口研究所、公共管理学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2020年第6期77-91,共15页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71731007);国家自然科学基金一般项目(71573112);国家自然科学基金一般项目(71373110)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文以高龄养老供需"不可均衡风险"为切入点,构建高龄养老"不可均衡风险"系数模型,研究全国社会保障基金的养老适度水平。研究发现:(1)高龄人口养老供需存在"不可均衡风险",且这种风险的应对契合全国社会保障基金宗旨。(2)本世纪初到本世纪中期,高龄养老"不可均衡风险"系数从0.24增长到2.03,增长近7.45倍,呈现为加速增长趋势。(3)高龄养老存在着供需"均衡时点",均衡时点后移会产生"不可均衡风险"倍数降低。(4)高龄养老供需"不可均衡风险"系数水平可以作为全国社会保障基金的养老适度水平标准,目前基金年增长值可以应对城镇职工高龄养老"不可均衡风险",但还不能应对全国城乡高龄养老风险。(5)积极应对高龄养老"不可均衡风险",具有良好的社会经济效应。Based on the“unbalanced risk”of supply and demand of the old-age care for the oldest-old,this paper constructs the“unbalanced risk”coefficient model to study the moderate old-age care level of the National Social Security Fund.We found that:(1)There exists“unbalanced risk”between the supply and demand of the old-age care for the oldest-old,and the response to this risk is consistent with the purpose of the National Social Security Fund.(2)From the beginning to the middle of this century,the“unbalanced risk”coefficient of the old-age care for the oldest-old increased from 0.24 to 2.03,nearly 7.45 times,showing a trend of accelerated growth.(3)There is an“equilibrium time point”between supply and demand of the old-age care for the oldestold,and the backward shift of the equilibrium time point will result in the reduction of“unbalanced risk”multiple.(4)The“unbalanced risk”coefficient level can be regarded as the moderate old-age care standard of the National Social Security Fund.At present,the total annual accumulation of the fund can deal with the“unbalanced risk”of the urban oldest-old,but not the oldest-old who are not urban workers.(5)It has a positive social and economic effect to actively deal with the“unbalanced risk”of the old-age care for the oldest-old.

关 键 词：高龄养老 不可均衡风险 基金养老 适度水平 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险] F222