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作 者:王欣亮[1] 杜壮壮 刘飞 WANG Xin-liang;DU Zhuang-zhuang;LIU Fei(School of Public Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;School of Philosophy,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China)
机构地区:[1]西北大学公共管理学院,陕西西安710127 [2]西北大学哲学学院,陕西西安710127
出 处:《华东经济管理》2020年第7期61-72,共12页East China Economic Management
基 金:国家自然科学基金青年项目“我国经济增长效率损失研究:基于要素空间错配下产业结构失衡的分析”(71703121);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“要素空间错配下产业结构失衡与经济增长效率损失研究”(17YJC790158);陕西省软科学计划面上项目“基于优化创新要素配置的陕西经济高质量发展路径研究”(2019KRM054)。
摘 要:在我国人口老龄化程度日益加重,同时面临经济增长"新常态"的双重压力下,文章通过对产业转型升级重新界定并进行三维度划分,基于1997-2017年我国省域面板数据,构建动态GMM模型及逐步回归的中介效应模型,探究了人口老龄化与产业转型升级的耦合效应与机制。从耦合效应来看,虽然人口老龄化抑制了产业结构协调型转型,但其既有助于三次产业比例调整,推进产业升级,又能"倒逼"技术创新,促进产业技术创新型转型,所以从总体上推动了产业转型升级。从影响机制来看,两者的耦合机制发挥依赖于需求结构变动效应,消费需求与人力资本变动对老龄化与产业升级、技术创新型转型的耦合机制发挥起到加强作用,也对老龄化阻滞的结构协调型转型效应起到调节作用,但由于人口老龄化降低了劳动力效率,致使劳动力效率在人口老龄化影响产业升级与产业创新型转型进程中存在掩盖效应,在人口老龄化影响产业协调型转型进程中则发挥了中介效应。据此,提出相关政策建议。Under the background of the double pressures of the"new normal"of economic growth and the increasing ag⁃ing of the population in China,this paper redefines the industrial transformation and upgrading and divides them into three dimensions and then constructs a dynamic GMM model and a stepwise regression mediating effect model based on the panel data of provinces in China from 1997 to 2017 to studies the coupling effect and mechanism between population aging and industrial transformation and upgrading.From the perspective of coupling effect,although population aging in⁃hibits the coordinated transformation of industrial structure,it not only helps to adjust the proportion of three industries and promote industrial upgrading,but also"pushes back"technological innovation and promotes industrial technological innovation transformation,so it promotes industrial transformation and upgrading in general.From the perspective of the impact mechanism,the coupling mechanism of the two depends on the effect of demand structure change.The change of consumption demand and labor capital plays a strengthening role in the coupling mechanism of aging with industrial up⁃grading and technological innovation transformation,and also plays a regulating role in the structural coordination transfor⁃mation effect of the ageing blockade.Population aging reduces the efficiency of labor force,which results in the apparent concealment effect of labor force efficiency.In fact,improving labor force efficiency is conducive to industrial upgrading,industrial coordination and innovative transformation.Based on this,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.
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