基于实测数据的风电场相邻日有功出力相关性研究  

Correlation of Wind Farm Adjacent Day Active Power Output Based on Measured Data

作　　者：吕思潼 李建国[1] 郭永鑫 周博文 LYU Sitong;LI Jianguo;GUO Yongxin;ZHOU Bowen(School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai DianJi University,Shanghai 201306,China;State Grid Jilin Electric Power Training Center,Changchun130062,China;College of Information Science and Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院电气学院,上海201306 [2]国网吉林电力培训中心,吉林长春130062 [3]东北大学信息科学与工程学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《智慧电力》2020年第5期47-52,79,共7页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61703081)。

摘　　要：随着我国对可再生能源扶持力度的加大,风电装机容量也不断增大.由于我国北方地区冬季的供热需求量很高,致使冬季风能利用率不高、弃风现象严重,为了更加合理地利用风能资源,风电场历史运行数据成为必不可少的资料.利用Copula函数对北方地区某风电场非供热期相邻日有功出力进行计算,得到相邻日之间的联合概率密度分布图、联合分布函数图及相关系数.在此基础上,对相邻日有功出力的相关性进行定量研究,分析其随时间的变化情况,探讨风电场相邻日之间有功出力相关性.通过研究历史相邻日有功出力的相关性为研究未来相邻日有功出力相关性打下基础,同时也为电力系统工程调度运行管理人员提供一定的参考.With increasing support for renewable energy in China,wind power installed capacity has also increased.Due to the high heating demand in winter in northern China,the utilization of winter wind energy is not high,which leads to severe wind abandonment.In order to make more reasonable use of wind energy resources,historical operating data of wind farms have become essential first-hand information.Copulas function is used to compute and analyze the wind farm adjacent day wind power output during non-heating period.The joint probability density distribution chart between adjacent days,joint distribution function and association coefficient are obtained.Then quantitative study is conducted for the correlation of adjacent day active output.Its variation with time is analyzed,active power output between adjacent days of wind farm is discussed.Studying the history of adjacent days output lays the foundation in the future,provide references for power system dispatching,operation and management staff.

关 键 词：风电出力 相邻日 相关性 秩相关系数 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]