贸易摩擦、中国农产品市场引力效应与伙伴国贸易前景--基于随机模型及15国数据的实证研究  

A Study on the Trade Prospects of Major Countries in China’s Agricultural Products Market Under Sino-US Trade Friction

作　　者：王月 程景民 WANG Yue;CHENG Jingmin

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872 [2]中国农垦经济发展中心,北京100122

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2020年第5期131-142,共12页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“亚太自贸区建设与中国国际战略研究”(编号:15JZD037);中国人民大学“统筹推进世界一流大学和一流学科建设”重大规划项目“国际关系与政治学博弈论及大数据方法研究”(编号:16XNLG11)。

摘　　要：中国是全球农产品市场增长主导力量,具有强大市场引力效应。在中美贸易摩擦下,中国市场已成为影响全球农产品贸易的关键因素。在运用随机前沿引力模型测算贸易效率和运用显示性竞争比较优势指数测算产品竞争力的基础上,提出交叉分析预测贸易前景的方法,测算2018年15个国家农产品在中国市场的贸易前景,揭示中美贸易摩擦对贸易前景的短期及长期影响。短期看,中美贸易摩擦对中国果蔬市场影响较大,贸易前景"光明"、"可期"以及部分"瓶颈"国家均从中收益。长期看,中美保持并发展农产品贸易是大势所趋,为突破"瓶颈"美国将挖掘新的贸易增长点,其他贸易前景"光明"的国家将会巩固和扩大中美贸易摩擦下获得的贸易成果。China is the leading growth force in the global agricultural market,with a strong market gravitational effect.Amid trade frictions between the US and China,the Chinese market has become a key factor affecting global agricultural trade.This paper proposes a method for analyzing trade prospects based on the empirical model.Firstly,measuring trade efficiency and commodity competitiveness,and then referencing the BCG Matrix research methods to do the cross-analysis,to obtain four states of trade prospects: "bright","promising","bottleneck",and "gloomy".In this way,this paper not only analyzed the trade prospects of the top 15 countries in China’s agricultural imports market,but also analyzed the trade prospects in three specific classes including animals,fruits and vegetables,and processed foods.At last,this paper analyzed the trade prospects of the 15 countries in China’s agricultural imports market under Sino-US trade friction.

关 键 词：农产品市场 贸易前景 贸易效率 产品竞争力 中美贸易摩擦 

分 类 号：F313[经济管理—产业经济] F746