基于系统动力学的毒品违法犯罪防治建模与仿真  

Modeling and Simulation for Prevention and Control of Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：刘风[1,2] Liu Feng(Department of Information Management,National Police University for Criminal Justice,Baoding 071000,China;Research Center of Drug Abuse Correctional Rehabilitation,National Police University for Criminal Justice,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]中央司法警官学院信息管理系,河北保定071000 [2]中央司法警官学院戒毒康复研究中心,河北保定071000

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2020年第5期866-873,共8页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(1571192)。

摘　　要：现有毒品滥用动力学模型假设吸毒者康复后对毒品拥有永久"免疫"力,而忽视了其再次成为毒品易感者的可能性。采用系统动力学(System Dynamics, SD)方法,分析了毒品违法犯罪人群的演化过程,构建了基于暂时"免疫"力的毒品违法犯罪防治模型,仿真实验预测了毒品违法犯罪趋势,灵敏度分析表明接触涉毒率是对毒品违法犯罪最敏感的影响因素。研究结果表明,毒品违法犯罪形势不容乐观,应采取系统防治策略,事前积极预防为主,并辅以必要的矫治和严惩措施。In the existing drug abuse dynamics models, the drug users are assumed to be permanent immune to drugs after rehabilitation and the possibility of the recovery drug users being susceptible again is neglected. To solve the problem, through the system dynamics(SD) method, the evolution process of the drug-related crowds is analyzed, and a relevant model based on the transient immunity is constructed. The trends of the drug abuse and drug-related crime are predicted by the simulation experiments, and the sensitivity analysis indicates that the rate of contact and exposure to drugs is the most sensitive factor of the prevention and control effect. The research results show that, the situation is very severe and the systematic prevention and control strategies should be adopted. Prevention and control in advance is the most important, and the necessary correct treatments and punishment measures is the supplemented.

关 键 词：毒品违法 毒品犯罪 预防治理 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]