人口老龄化、养老保险改革与劳动参与率研究  

Study on Population Aging,Pension Insurance Reform and Labor Participation Rate

作　　者：郭东杰[1] 唐教成 GUO Dongjie;TANG Jiaocheng(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China;School of Marxism,Southwest University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]西南财经大学马克思主义学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《财经论丛》2020年第6期12-20,共9页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901202);浙江省教育科学规划项目(2020SCG227)。

摘　　要：本文将人口老龄化和养老保险因素引入世代交叠模型,从理论上探讨两者对劳动参与率的影响,运用2004~2017年我国省际面板数据进行检验分析。研究结果发现,老年抚养比对劳动参与率产生显著的负影响,人均养老保险支出对劳动参与率产生显著的正影响,两者的交叉影响则为负数。为消除内生性问题,采用总抚养比和人均社保收入两个工具变量再次检验,估计结果较为一致。收入提高和教育水平发展与劳动参与率正相关,产业结构调整带来一定的负效应。为维持适度的劳动参与率以促进经济增长,需进一步放宽计划生育,落实相关的配套政策。This paper introduces the two factors of population ageing and pension insurance into an overlapping generations model to discuss their influence on the labor participation rate theoretically and then uses the national inter-provincial panel data from 2004 to 2015 to make an empirical study.The findings of the study are as follows:The elderly dependency ratio has a significant negative effect on the labor participation rate;the per capita pension insurance expenditure has a significant positive effect on labor participation rate;and the cross-influence of the two factors is negative.In order to eliminate the endogenous problem,two IVs of the total dependency ratio and the per capita social security income are used for regression analysis,and the results are consistent.In addition,the income increase and the educational level development are positively correlated with the labor participation rate.The adjustment of the industrial structure brings about certain negative effects.In order to maintain a moderate labor participation rate and promote the economic growth,the government is suggested to further relax the family planning policy and implement relevant supporting policies.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老保险 劳动参与率 世代交叠模型 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]