2016/2017冬中国气温偏暖的基本特征及可能成因  

The Basic Characteristics and Possible Causes of Warm Temperature in China in 2016/2017

作　　者：于骐恺 高震 姚素香[1] Yu Qikai;Gao Zhen;Yao Suxiang(College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2020年第12期79-85,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：973项目“热带和中高纬季节内振荡的动力机理及延伸期预报方法研究”(2015CB453200);国家自然科学金面上项目“区域气候模式中云-辐射-降水过程的超级参数化研究”(41775096)。

摘　　要：利用中国740余站观测的月平均2 m气温资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过动力学诊断的方法,对2016-2017年中国冬季异常偏暖现象进行了研究。结果发现:中国2016-2017年冬季气温偏暖主要是由于西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压偏弱导致东亚冬季风偏弱,在中国存在异常的偏南风。阿留申低压偏弱由两个因素引起,一是由于阿留申群岛地区的海温偏低,冷源对应异常高压导致阿留申低压偏弱;二是阿留申低压在东亚副热带高空西风急流出口区以北,然而该冬季高空西风急流出口区位置偏南,导致阿留申地区偏离急流出口减压区,从而导致阿留申低压偏弱。此外,西风带偏北,中高纬亚洲大陆上空以纬向环流为主,不利于冷空气南下。Based on the monthly mean 2 m temperature observation data of more than 740 stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data, using dynamic diagnosis method, the abnormal warm winter phenomenon in China in 2016 to 2017 was studied. The results showed that the warm winter in China in 2016 to 2017 was mainly due to the weak Siberian high pressure and Aleutian low pressure, which led to the weak East Asian winter monsoon, so there was an abnormal southerly wind in China. The weakness of Aleutian low was caused by two factors. First, the sea surface temperature in Aleutian Islands was low, and the cold source corresponded to an abnormal high pressure, which led to the weakness of Aleutian low pressure. Second, the Aleutian low pressure was to the north of the outlet area of the upper westerly jet in the East Asian subtropical region.However, the outlet area of the westerly jet was located to the south in this winter, as a result, the Aleutian area deviated from the pressure relief zone of the jet stream outlet area, resulting in the weakening of the Aleutian low pressure. In addition, the westerlies were northward, and the zonal circulation dominated over the middle and high latitudes of the Asian continent, which was not conducive to the southward movement of cold air.

关 键 词：暖冬 东亚冬季风 阿留申低压 海温异常 副热带西风急流 动力学诊断 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]