Tree ring based drought variability in Northwest Tajikistan since 1895 AD  

作　　者：YANG Meilin YU Yang ZHANG Haiyan WANG Qian GAN Miao YU Ruide 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China [2]School of Environment and Material Science,Yantai University,Yantai 264005,China

出　　处：《Journal of Arid Land》2020年第3期413-422,共10页干旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：This study was supported by the CAS"Light of West China"Program(2018-XBQNXZ-B-017,2015-XBQN-B-22);the 100 Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y931201);the High Level Talent Introduction Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Y942171).

摘　　要：Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Central Asia.Forest trees are ecologically significant in the local environment,and therefore the tree ring analysis can provide a clear record of regional historical climate.This study analyzed the correlation between the tree ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica Komarov and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Northwest Tajikistan,based on 56 tree ring samples collected from Shahristan in the Pamir region.Climate data including precipitation,temperature and the SPEI were downloaded from the Climate Research Unit(CRU)TS 4.00.The COFECHA program was used for cross-dating,and the ARSTAN program was used to remove the growth trend of the tree itself and the influence of non-climatic factors on the growth of the trees.A significant correlation was found between the radial growth of J.turkestanica trees and the monthly mean SPEI of February–April.The monthly mean SPEI sequence of February–April during the period of 1895–2016 was reconstructed,and the reconstruction equation explained 42.5%of the variance.During the past 122 a(1895–2016),the study area has experienced three wetter periods(precipitation above average):1901–1919,1945–1983 and 1995–2010,and four drier periods(precipitation below average):1895–1900,1920–1944,1984–1994 and 2011–2016.The spatial correlation analysis revealed that the monthly mean SPEI reconstruction sequence of February–April could be used to characterize the large-scale dry-wet variations in Northwest Tajikistan during the period of 1895–2016.This study could provide comparative data for validating the projections of climate models and scientific basis for managing water resources in Tajikistan in the context of climate change.

关 键 词：tree ring width CHRONOLOGY standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) DROUGHT Juniperus turkestanica Pamir region 

分 类 号：Q945[生物学—植物学] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]