1950-2015年全国疟疾流行趋势分析  

Trend analysis of malaria incidence from 1950 to 2015

作　　者：于潇 马恩达 张丹丹 张晨琳 刘文慧[4] 王保珍 YU Xiao;MA En-da;ZHANG Dan-dan;ZHANG Chen-lin;LIU Wen-hui;WANG Bao-zhen(Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong 250012;High School Attached to Shandong Normal Iniversity,Jinan,Shandong 250014;Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong 250012;Information Data Processing Teach ing Laboratory,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shdndong University,Jinan,Shandong 250012,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共卫生学院营养与食品卫生学系,山东济南250012 [2]山东师范大学附属中学,山东济南250014 [3]山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系,山东济南250012 [4]山东大学公共卫生学院信息数据处理教学实验室,山东济南250012

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2020年第4期478-483,共6页Journal of Tropical Medicine

摘　　要：目的通过对1950-2015年疟疾流行病趋势进行分析,探索疟疾的流行规律,为达到消除疟疾的目标提供依据。方法利用中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科学数据中心的数据,对收集到的1950-2015年的疟疾的发病率、发病人数、死亡率、死亡人数等数据用R3.4.3软件进行分析,绘制发病率折线图及发病率季节分布图。结果1950-2015年期间,全国疟疾共发病22767万例,死亡3.6万例,年均发病率为350.25/10万。我国疟疾可分为四个阶段:1950-1985年为疟疾的高流行水平阶段(第一阶段),疟疾的发病率均在100/10万以上,在1970年发病率达到最高(2961.10/10万),其中1950-1958年疟疾主要流行在中国的南部,分布范围广,其中广东省发病率最高;1959-1967年,高发病区转移至东部沿海以及华中地区,其中以山东省、江苏省和河南省发病率为最高;1968-1985年疟疾发病集中在淮河流域,发病率高的省份有江苏省、安徽省、河南省和湖北省。1986-2000年为疟疾的控制阶段(第二阶段),大多数省份发病率降至10/10万以下,发病主要集中在云南省和安徽省。2001-2009年为疟疾的消除前期阶段(第三阶段),除海南、安徽和云南外,其余省份发病率均在5/10万以下。2010-2015年为疟疾的消除阶段(第四阶段),各省发病率在0.02/10万~1.91/10万之间,仅云南一省发病率超过1/10万,较其他地区高。第一阶段疟疾的发病率从6月份开始大幅度升高,在9月份达到高峰后开始下降;从第二阶段开始,发病率在5月份即开始出现大幅度升高的现象,8月份即达到高峰后开始下降,均在11月份发病率下降趋势减缓,流行季结束;1950-2000年,流行季节(5-10月)发病数占比均在65%以上,2001-2015年流行季节的发病数占全年发病数的49.40%。结论我国疟疾发病有明显地区差异和季节性,疟疾防控工作已经取得很大成就,2010年后已进入消除阶段,仍需要加强防控。Objective To analyze the incidence of malaria in 1950-2015,explore the epidemic trend of malaria,and provide evidence for the elimination of malaria.Methods Using the data from the Public Health Science Data Center of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,the collected data on malaria incidence,number of cases,mortality,deaths from 1950 to 2015 were analyzed using R3.4.3 software to map the incidence line.Results From 1950 to2015,a total of 227.76 million cases of malaria and 36000 deaths were reported nationwide,with an average annual incidence of 350.25/100000.China′s malaria could be divided into four stages:1950-1985 was a high prevalence stage of malaria(the first stage),and the incidence of malaria was above 100/100000.The highest incidence was in 1970(2961.10/100000).From 1950 to 1958,the prevalence of malaria was mainly in the south of China,with a wide distribution,with the highest incidence in Guangdong province.From 1959 to 1967,the high incidence area was transferred to the eastern coast and central China,with Shandong,Jiangsu and Henan provinces having the highest incidence.From 1968 to1985,malaria was concentrated in the Huaihe River Basin.The provinces with the highest incidence were Jiangsu,Anhui,Henan and Hubei.The malaria control period was from 1986 to 2000(the second stage),and the incidence of most provinces fell below 10/100000,with the disease mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Anhui provinces.The period from2001 to 2009 was the pre-elimination stage of malaria(the third stage),and the incidence was below 5/100000 in the remaining provinces except for Hainan,Anhui and Yunnan.In 2010,it entered the eradication phase of malaria(the fourth stage),and the incidence were between 0.02/100000 and 1.91/100000,and the incidence was more than 1/100000 only in Yunnan province,which was higher than other regions.The incidence of the first stage of malaria increased sharply from June and began to decline after reaching its peak in September.From the second stage,the incidence rate began

关 键 词：疟疾 发病率 趋势 

分 类 号：R531.3[医药卫生—内科学]