RCP情景下河南省夏玉米发育期变化及可调节热量资源估算  

Variation of summer maize development and estimation of adjustable thermal resource in Henan Province under RCP scenarios

作　　者：李树岩[1,2] 潘学标[3] 王靖 LI Shuyan;PAN Xuebiao;WANG Jing(Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,China Meteorological Administration,Zhengzhou 450003.China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhengzhou 450003,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University.Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 [3]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2020年第6期35-45,共11页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFD0300304);中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室基金项目(AMF201905);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201408)。

摘　　要：为模拟未来气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响并估算增温背景下夏玉米收获至冬小麦播种间可调节热量资源,将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区,引入未来气候变化情景(RCPs)数据驱动参数本地化后的CERES-Maize模型开展研究。结果表明:2006-2060年夏玉米生长季积温呈显著上升趋势,较基准条件(1951-2005年)平均增加179(RCP 4.5)和235℃·d(RCP 8.5)。未来情景下夏玉米播种-开花和播种-成熟日数均呈缩短趋势,其中豫西(Ⅱ区)的变化率高于其他地区。2050s夏玉米播种-开花期全省平均缩短2.7(RCP 4.5)和3.4d(RCP 8.5),播种-成熟期平均缩短9.4(RCP 4.5)和11.6d(RCP 8.5),其中豫西(Ⅱ区)缩短最多。夏玉米可调节热量资源估算结果表明,未来气候变化情景下夏玉米成熟后-冬小麦播种前可调节热量资源豫东(Ⅲ区)增加最多,分别增加244.6(RCP 4.5)和296.8℃·d(RCP 8.5),豫西(Ⅱ区)增加最少,分别增加152.3(RCP 4.5)和215.8℃·d(RCP 8.5)。未来气候变化情景下夏玉米可生长日数豫西南(Ⅳ区)增加最多,分别增加9(RCP 4.5)和11d(RCP 8.5),其他各区夏玉米可生长日数在RCP 4.5情景下分别增加8(豫北Ⅰ区)、6(豫西Ⅱ区)和8d(豫东Ⅲ区);RCP 8.5情景下分别增加9(豫北区)、8(豫西Ⅱ区)和10d(豫东Ⅲ区)。秋收秋种间可调节热量资源的增加将对提高玉米产量产生重要作用。To simulate the impact of future climate change on summer maize development and adjustable thermal resource between harvesting summer maize and sowing winter wheat,this study applied the CERES-Maize model driven by future RCP scenarios in four maize growing regions in Henan Province.The results showed that the thermal time during summer maize growing season increased significantly in the future(2006-2060)with the increment of 179(RCP4.5)and 235℃·d(RCP 8.5),respectively,compared to the baseline scenario(1951-2005).Under future RCP scenarios,both the duration from sowing to flowering and sowing to maturing were shortened compared to the baseline scenario and higher change rate in the western Henan Province was observed than that in other regions.To 2050 sthe duration from sowing to flowering would be respectively shortened by 2.7(RCP 4.5)and 3.4 d(RCP 8.5),and the duration from sowing to maturing would be respectively shortened by 9.4(RCP 4.5)and 11.6 d(RCP 8.5)with the highest decrease in the western Henan Province.Under future RCP scenarios,adjustable thermal resources between harvesting summer maize to sowing winter wheat would increase significantly with the highest increase in eastern Henan Province(244.6℃·d under RCP 4.5 and 296.8℃·d under RCP 8.5)and the lowest increase in western Henan Province(152.3℃·d under RCP 4.5 and 215.8℃·d under RCP 8.5).The growth duration from sowing to maturing would increase significantly by 8 d(zoneⅠ-Norther Henan),6(zoneⅡ-Western Henan),8(zoneⅢ-Eastern-Henan)and 9 d(zoneⅣ-Southwestern Henan)under RCP 4.5,and 9(zoneⅠ-Northern Henan),8 d(zoneⅡ-Western Henan),10(zoneⅢ-Eastern Henan)and 11 d(zoneⅣ-Southwestern Henan)under RCP 8.5.In conclusion,the increase in adjustable thermal resource between harvesting summer maize and sowing winter wheat would have a significant impact on maize yield improvement in Henan Province.

关 键 词：RCP气候情景 CERES-MAIZE 气候变化 夏玉米 发育期 热量资源 

分 类 号：S512[农业科学—作物学] S513