中美纺织品贸易变动影响因素——基于修正的CMS模型  

Factors of the fluctuation of China-US textile trade:Based on modified CMS model

作　　者：卢艳平[1] 肖海峰[1] LU Yanping;XIAO Haifeng(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2020年第6期154-164,共11页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：农业部和财政部国家现代农业(绒毛用羊)产业技术体系产业经济研究项目(CAR-39-22)。

摘　　要：采用修正的恒定市场份额模型研究中美纺织品贸易变动的成因,结果表明:竞争力效应一直是中国输美纺织品增长的最主要因素,其次是增长效应,产品结构效应对出口的作用最小。竞争力效应也是美国对华纺织品贸易增长的最主要因素,其次是增长效应。从分类产品来看,竞争力效应对中国输美的纺织原料和纺织服装产品的贡献最大,而增长效应是美国对华纺织原料和纺织服装出口增长的最核心要素。说明中国纺织品在美市场具有显著的竞争优势,是中国对美纺织品出口增长的最主要因素,而中国对美纺织服装的需求增长是促进美国对华纺织品出口的最核心因素。A revised CMS model was used to analyze the causes of China-US textile trade volatility in this study.The result showed that the competitiveness effect has always been the most important factor for China’s textile growth to the United States,followed by the growth effect,and the structure effect had the least impact on exports.The competitiveness effect was also the most important factor in the growth of US textile trade with China,followed by the growth effect.From the point of view of classified products,the competitive effect had contributed the most to China’s textile raw materials and textile and apparel products exported to the United States.The growth effect was the core factor for the growth of US textile raw materials and textile apparel exports to China.In conclusion,Chinese textiles had significant competitive advantages in the US market and was the most important factor for China's textile exports to the United States.The growth of China’s demand for US textiles and apparel was the core factor in promoting US textile exports to China.

关 键 词：纺织品 贸易规模 市场结构 产品结构 修正CMS模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]