厂商异质性、环境规制与中国经济波动——基于六部门DSGE模型的数值分析  

Manufacturer Heterogeneity,Environmental Regulation and Economic Fluctuation in China——Numerical Analysis Based on Six-sector DSGE Model

作　　者：邹乐欢 季强 刘纪显[1] ZOU Le-huan;JI Qiang;LIU Ji-xian(School of Economics and Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第6期122-128,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：探讨环境政策与经济波动的关系对中国环境政策的实施具有重要意义。为此,利用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),分析技术外生冲击、环保技术及环境税冲击对社会总产出与异质性厂商产出的动态影响,以及厂商融资成本、经济结构差异化在经济波动中的作用。结果表明:短期内,厂商自身技术冲击会抑制其他厂商产出;长期内,对其他厂商产出有同向溢出效应。进一步分析发现:污染厂商技术冲击对自身产出正向作用比清洁厂商技术产生的作用更加明显,并且污染厂商技术冲击对社会总产出有更显著的促进作用;环保技术冲击相对于环境税冲击而言,对社会总产出的正向效应更大,负向效应更小;当厂商的融资成本大于其他厂商的融资成本时,其他厂商的技术冲击增加对社会总产出增加有显著的作用。To explore the relationship between environmental policy and economic fluctuation is of great significance to the implementation of environmental policy in China.For the basis,the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE)is used to analyze the external impact of technology,the dynamic impact of environmental protection technology and environmental tax impact on the total social output and the output of heterogeneous manufacturers,and the role of firm financing costs and economic structure differentiation in economic fluctuations.The results show that:in the short term,the impact of the firm's own technology will restrain the output of other firms;in the long term,there is a simultaneous spillover effect on the output of other firms.Further analysis show that the positive effect of the pollution firm's technology shock on its own output is more obvious than that of the cleaner firm's technology,and the pollution firm's technology shock has a more significant effect on the total social output.The environmental protection technology shock has a greater positive effect on the total social output than the environmental tax shock,and the negative effect is smaller.When the financing cost of the firm exceeds the financing cost of other firms,the increase of the other firm's technology shock has a significant effect on the increase of the total social output.

关 键 词：溢出效应 异质性厂商 环境规制政策 DSGE模型 融资成本 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]