人民币避险货币特性研究  

The Study on Safe Haven Properties of RMB

作　　者：师立强[1] 高晓芬[1] 高鸿 SHI Li-qiang;GAO Xiao-fen;GAO Hong(Hohhot Central Sub-branch,People's Bank of China,Hohhot 010000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行呼和浩特中心支行,内蒙古呼和浩特010000

出　　处：《前沿》2020年第2期43-50,共8页Forward Position

摘　　要：随着人民币在国际市场上的接受程度不断提高,部分市场参与者认为人民币已经或正在成为避险货币。本文结合避险货币的形成条件和基本特性,利用外汇市场压力模型,通过外汇市场压力指数的测算和与全球风险情绪关系的回归,综合考虑我国的实际情况,加入人民币国际化时间虚拟变量和金融市场深度变量,对人民币是否具有避险货币特性进行了计量分析。检验结果表明,人民币在纳入国际货币基金组织特别提款权篮子之后,一定程度上呈现出避险货币的特性。对此,提出相关政策建议。Some participants of foreign exchange market believe that RMB has become,or is becoming,a safe haven currency as it is gaining acceptance in the international market.The main objective of this paper is to find out whether RMB embodies the properties of a safe haven currency,for which we analyze the relationship between the index of RMB exchange market pressure and global risk aversion,and include a time dummy variable and an indicator of market development connecting with the practical situation in China.We find that the safe haven properties of RMB are visible after its inclusion in the SDR.This suggests caution in the macro-prudential management of cross-border funds,the promotion of RMB-internationalization and the reform of financial market.

关 键 词：人民币 避险货币 外汇市场压力指数 国际化 

分 类 号：F832.31[经济管理—金融学]