淮河中游超标准洪水溃口风险研究  

Risk Study on Breach of Exceeding Standard Flood in Middle Reach of Huaihe River

作　　者：陈小凤[1,2] 施奇 章启兵[1,2] 胡勇 贲鹏[1,2] CHEN Xiaofeng;SHI Qi;ZHANG Qibing;HU Yong;BEN Peng(Huaihe Institute of Water Resources Research,Huaihe Water Conservancy Commission,MWR,Bengbu 233000,China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province,Bengbu 233000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]水利水资源安徽省重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《水文》2020年第3期34-39,64,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404504)。

摘　　要：淮河中游防洪标准为百年一遇,当遭遇超标准洪水,依据洪水调度方案,颍右片防洪保护区可能遭遇溃口洪水风险。基于MIKE构建淮河干流与7条主要入河支流一维模型、研究区和行蓄洪区二维模型,将溃口口门概化为宽顶堰,溃口处采用标准连接和一维模型耦合计算。超标准洪水采用1954年型洪水同频率放大,选用2003年和2007年洪水率定和验证参数。模拟结果显示:新李扒口后洪水沿着八里河等低洼区域向上游演进,300年一遇和1000年一遇最大淹没面积分别为810km^2、911km^2,平均最大淹没水深分别为2.42m、2.70m。模型计算结果符合区域地形地貌等,可为区域防洪规划编制、应急预案制定、洪水风险决策等提供参考。The flood control standard in the middle reach of the Huaihe River is 100-year recurrence interval.When exceeding standard flood occurs,the Yingyou area may encounter flood breach risk according to the flood dispatching scheme.This paper established an one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the Huaihe River and its seven tributaries,and a two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for the study area and flood plain,generalized the breach gate as a wide crest weir,and applied standard link and one dimensional fitting calculation at the breach.This paper also amplified the exceeding standard flood with the same frequency of the flood in 1954,and chosen the calibrated and verified parameters of the floods in 2003 and 2007.The results show that flood was routing from the Balihe low-lying area to the upstream after breaching at Xinli.For 300-year and 1000-year recurrence intervals,the maximum submerged areas are 810km2 and 911km2 respectively,and the average maximum submerged depth are 2.42m and 2.70m respectively.The model calculation results are in accordance with the actual situation of the region.

关 键 词：超标准洪水 主动溃口 MIKE模型 风险模拟 淮河中游 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]