汇率制度改革能否提升货币政策独立性与有效性?:双目标双工具政策的视角  

Can the Exchange Rate Liberalization Improve the Independence and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy?:Based on the Perspective of Dual-Target and Dual-Tool Policy

作　　者：胡小文[1] Hu Xiaowen

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第5期45-58,M0003,共15页World Economy Studies

基　　金：中国博士后面上基金“汇率市场化能提升货币政策有效性?——基于NOEM-DSGE模型的模拟”(项目编号:2017M611761)。

摘　　要：文章构建了外汇储备管理汇率和利率调控通胀的"双目标双工具"DSGE框架,比较泰勒规则和双目标双工具政策下汇率制度改革对货币政策独立性与有效性的影响。模拟发现:第一,在固定汇率制转向浮动汇率制过程中,泰勒规则政策下货币政策独立性逐步增强;但是双目标双工具政策下货币政策独立性并不会越来越强,而是呈现先强后弱的态势。第二,两种政策下货币政策有效性都随汇率制度改革而增强,原因是汇率弹性增强能疏通利率-汇率渠道。第三,在当前阶段实施双目标双工具政策无论是从独立性还是有效性角度看都具有优势,但随着汇率制度改革和资本账户开放的同步推进,双目标双工具政策框架下货币政策独立性与有效性都会下降。结论的启示是:随着中国金融改革的逐步深入,为预防货币政策独立性与有效性下降,需加快构建跨境资本管理体系,协调推进货币政策与跨境资本宏观审慎政策。Different from the existing New Keynesian inflation target DSGE framework,based on the characteristics of China’s foreign exchange reserves to manage exchange rates and interest rate to control inflation,a"dual-target,dual-tool"DSGE framework was constructed,We analyze the impact of reform on the effects of monetary policy under this framework and the Taylor Rule policy framework.The simulation shows that:first,as the fixed exchange rate system shifts to the floating exchange rate system,the independence of monetary policy is gradually strengthened under the Taylor rule policy;second,under both policies,the effectiveness of monetary policy is enhanced with the reform of the exchange rate system,because the exchange rate flexibility can widen the interest rate-exchange rate channel;third,compared with the current stage,the implementation of the dual-objective and dual-tool policy framework has advantages in both independence and effectiveness.However,with the simultaneous advancement of China’s exchange rate system reform and the opening of the capital account,the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy under the dual-target and dual-instrument policy framework will decline.The enlightenment of the conclusion is that with the gradual deepening of China’s financial reforms,in order to prevent the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy from decreasing,an inflation targeting system and a macro-prudential policy framework for cross-border capital should be constructed.

关 键 词：双目标双工具政策 泰勒规则 货币政策独立性与有效性 汇率制度改革 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F822.0