中美贸易失衡缘何而来?:基于国民收入“注入-漏出”模型的拓展解释  

What Causes the Trade Imbalance Between China and the United States?: Based on the Expanded " Injection-Leak" Model of National Income

作　　者：胡晓鹏[1] 惠佩瑶 Hu Xiaopeng;Hui Peiyao

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第5期98-110,M0004,共14页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：目前已有许多学者以美国储蓄率相对投资率偏低来解释美国贸易逆差的成因,但这一观点往往忽视了跨国直接投资与跨国证券投资对国民收入循环体系的影响。基于此,文章拓展了国民收入"注入-漏出"模型,并依此对中美贸易失衡的形成机理作出了理论解释,在实证层面尝试论证理论假说。文章认为,中美贸易失衡原因是美国以全球金融霸权创造了巨额利益,又使其国际收支结构失衡恶化。我们应当规范企业对外直接投资流程以引导本国对外投资流向。主要结论有:中美贸易失衡是美国对中国"返销式"直接投资的结果;美国对中国直接投资是中美资本回报率差异的内生结果;美国金融霸权能使其获得大量低成本资金,从而助推了美国对外消费与对外投资的扩张。Though there are many scholars who believe that the relative low saving rate compared with investment rate is the cause for the US trade deficit,they seem to ignore the effect of international direct investment and securities investment on national income cycle system. Based on this,this paper will expand the " Injection-Leak" model of national income to make cross-border direct investment and securities investment included. This paper tries to make a theoretical explanation for " circular trap" of Sino-US trade imbalance,and demonstrate the theoretical hypothesis in an empirical way. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) SinoUS trade is the result of the " Return Selling" direct investment from America to China;(2) the foreign direct investment from the United States to China is the endogenous result of the difference in the rate of return on capital between two countries;(3) a large number of low-cost funds that the US obtains by its financial hegemony,boosts the expansion of American outward foreign consumption and foreign investment.

关 键 词：中美贸易 注入-漏出 直接投资 资本回报率 金融霸权 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]