考虑决策者后悔规避的瓦斯爆炸案例决策方法  

Case-based decision method for gas explosion considering decision maker’s regret aversion

作　　者：郑晶[1,2] 张恺[3] ZHENG Jing;ZHANG Kai(College of Electronics and Information Science,Fujian Jiangxia University,Fuzhou 350108,China;Decision Sciences Institute,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,China;Department of Information Engineering,Fujian Chuanzheng Communications College,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建江夏学院电子信息科学学院,福建福州350108 [2]福州大学决策科学研究所,福建福州350116 [3]福建船政交通职业学院信息工程系,福建福州350007

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（理学版）》2020年第3期337-344,共8页Journal of Zhejiang University（Science Edition）

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(20YJC630229);福建省社会科学规划项目(FJ2019B079);教育部科技发展中心产学研创新基金项目(2018A01019).

摘　　要：针对案例决策中决策者存在心理行为的问题,提出了一种考虑决策者后悔规避的瓦斯爆炸案例决策方法。首先,在案例属性相似度计算中,将问题属性拓展到符号型数据、精确数、区间数、三角模糊数、多粒度语言变量和直觉模糊数6种类型。然后,在测算属性相似度的感知效用时,考虑决策者对属性相似度的后悔规避心理行为,通过加权求和计算案例相似度。进一步,计算案例实施效果的感知效用,再通过集结案例相似度和实施效果的感知效用得到综合感知效用,并依据综合感知效用大小生成最优的备选方案。最后通过一个算例,说明该方法的可行性和有效性。In order to solve the problem of the decision makers′psychological behavior in case-based decision,a casebased decision method for gas explosion considering decision maker′s regret aversion is proposed.Firstly,for the calculation of case similarity,the problem attributes are expanded to six types,including symbol data,crisp data,interval data,triangular fuzzy number,multi-granularity linguistic variable and intuitionistic fuzzy number.The perceived utility is then calculated based on the consideration of the decision maker′s regret aversion,and the case similarity is evaluated by weighted summation.Furthermore,the perceived utility of alternative implementations is calculated,and the comprehensive perceived utility is gained by integrating the perceived utility of case similarity with the perceived utility of alternative implementations.On the basis of the above,the optimal alternative is generated according to the comprehensive perceived utility.Finally,an illustrative example is provided which shows the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：后悔理论 案例推理 相似度 后悔值 感知效用 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]