民用机场航空运输业务量预测方法综述  

Review of Forecasting Methods of Air Traffic in Civil Airports

作　　者：李静娴 左杰俊 肖奇 郑思睿 钟琦 LI Jing-xian;ZUO Jie-jun;XIAO Qi;ZHANG Si-rui;ZHONG Qi(Besttrip Aviation Technology Service Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu Sichuan 610093;School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618300;Big Data Research Institute,The Second Research Institute of CAAC,Chengdu Sichuan 610041)

机构地区：[1]成都佰行航空技术服务有限公司,四川成都610093 [2]中国民用航空飞行学院空管学院,四川广汉618300 [3]中国民用航空局第二研究所大数据所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《长沙航空职业技术学院学报》2020年第2期83-87,共5页Journal of Changsha Aeronautical Vocational and Technical College

基　　金：2017年国家自然科学基金“近地阶段飞机尾流演化与风险控制关键技术”(编号:U1733203)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：航空运输业务量预测对于民航业的健康发展至关重要,运输业务量预测数据是主管部门规划建设和制定发展战略的重要依据。鉴于此,文章分析了航空运输业务量的影响因素,并对主流的航空运输业务量预测方法进行了详细的阐述和归纳。根据不同预测方法的特点,运用对比分析法将各种预测方法分为长期预测法、中长期预测法、短期预测法,研究结果能够为实际生产提供参考依据。The forecast of air traffic is vital to the healthy development of the civil aviation industry.The traffic forecast data is an important basis for the competent authorities to plan,and construct and formulate development strategies.In view of this,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of air tra ffic,expounds and summarizes the mainstream air traffic prediction methods.According to the characteristics of various methods,di fferent prediction methods are divided into long-term prediction method,medium and long-term prediction method and short-term prediction method by using comparative analysis method.The research results can provide reference for actual production.

关 键 词：交通运输 流量预测 调查法 航空业务量 回归分析 灰色预测 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]