新型城镇化背景下的公共投资与产业结构升级  

Public Investment and Industrial Structure Upgrading under the Background of New Urbanization

作　　者：李德玉[1] 叶卓雅 LI Deyu;YE Zhuoya(School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期317-322,共6页Journal of Shenyang University:Social Science

基　　金：安徽省社会科学联合会项目(2017CX035)。

摘　　要：建立了面板VAR模型,研究动态下公共投资、产业结构升级和新型城镇化水平三者之间的关系。研究结果表明:从短期看,新型城镇化水平的滞后1期能够推动产业结构升级,而产业结构升级的滞后1期也能增加公共投资,公共投资的滞后1期对新型城镇化水平和产业结构升级具有显著的促进作用;从长期看,公共投资、产业结构升级和新型城镇化水平三者之间长期存在动态关系。对此,从新型城镇化建设和投资需求角度提出了建议,以期完善推动产业结构升级的思路。The panel VAR model is established to study the relationship among public investment,industrial structure upgrading and new urbanization level.The results show that:in the short term,the lag period of the new urbanization level can promote the upgrading of industrial structure,and the lag period of the industrial structure upgrading can also increase public investment.The lag period of the public investment has a significant role in promoting the new urbanization level and the upgrading of industrial structure;in the long term,the public investment,industrial structure and the new urbanization level interact with each other and there is a long-term dynamic relationship among them.In this regard,from the perspective of new urbanization construction and investment demand,some suggestions are put forward in order to improve the idea of promoting industrial structure upgrading.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 公共投资 产业结构升级 面板VAR模型 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]