积云对流参数化对东亚近海热带气旋活动模拟的影响  

THE INFLUENCE OF CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION ON THE SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITIES IN EAST ASIA

作　　者：辅天华 陈海山[1] 曾智华[2] 徐明 FU Tian-hua;CHEN Hai-shan;ZENG Zhi-hua;XU Ming(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Meteorological Society,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [3]上海市气象学会,上海200030

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2020年第2期254-262,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：科技部国家重点研究发展计划(2018YFC1506405);国家自然科学基金(41975067、41275067、41575108)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于CWRF高分辨率模式的模拟结果,探讨了8种积云对流参数化方案对1986—2015年间东亚近海热带气旋的路径、频数及强度模拟的影响。结果发现:采用Kain-Fritsch方案模拟的热带气旋活动的空间分布与JTWC统计结果最接近。KF方案模拟的热带气旋生成频数(强度)明显高(强)于其他积云对流参数化方案,而BMJ方案模拟的热带气旋生成频数(强度)明显低(弱)于其他积云对流参数化方案。进一步分析发现,采用优化集合积云参数化方案(ECP)模拟热带气旋频数、ACE指数以及PDI指数的年际变化趋势较好,而采用KF积云对流参数化方案对热带气旋空间分布、频数及强度的模拟总体最优。Eight cumulus convection parameterization schemes in the high resolution model CWRF are used to simulated the track,frequency and intensity of the tropical cyclones(TC)occurred in the offshore area of East Asia during 1986 to 2015.It is found that the spatial distribution is well performed in numerical model by the Kain-Fritsch scheme compared with JTWC data.Frequency(Intensity)of the TC simulated by the KF scheme is obviously higher(stronger)than that by other schemes while the frequency(intensity)simulated by the BMJ scheme is obviously lower(weaker)than that by other schemes.Further analysis shows that the ECP scheme in the CWRF model performs better in the simulation of the tendency for variation in TCs’frequency,ACE indexes and PDI indexes.In all,the KF scheme in the CWRF model can better reproduce TCs’spatial distribution,frequency and intensity.

关 键 词：CWRF 积云对流参数化 模式评估 热带气旋 路径 强度 频数 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]