国家安全视角港口基础设施保障能力评价  

Support Capacity Analysis of Commercial Seaport Infrastructures from the Perspective of National Security

作　　者：张静 李小冬[1] 张智慧[1] 王瑞 Zhang Jing;Li Xiaodong;Zhang Zhihui;Wang Rui(Department of Construction Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of National Defense Transportation,Army Military Transportation University,Tianjin 300161,China;General Courses Department,Army Military Transportation University,Tianjin 300161,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084 [2]陆军军事交通学院国防交通系,天津300161 [3]陆军军事交通学院基础部,天津300161

出　　处：《天津大学学报（自然科学与工程技术版）》2020年第9期959-966,共8页Journal of Tianjin University：Science and Technology

基　　金：“十三五”国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0802001);军队科研项目.

摘　　要：港口(本文中的港口均指沿海民用港口)作为连接陆与海战略通道的重要节点,在国家安全面临威胁时极可能被征用,其集疏能力与保障的时效性关乎国家安全军事行动的进程乃至成败.本研究定位于沿海港口应对领土与主权纠纷等特殊时期、特殊任务需求的运输保障能力评价.针对该领域缺少定量研究及需求分析的现状,笔者通过“需求与供给”的定量对比分析,从而明确国家安全视角的港口基础设施保障能力,综合特殊时期的任务需求、特殊的运输品类,以及对港口基础设施的特殊要求,设定了“供给-需求”双侧指标评价体系,确定了港口特殊评价内容,选定了评价指标,建立了“供给-需求”双侧指标评价模型,并以沿海4个区域港口作为案例开展实证研究,计算得到了各区域港口的大规模兵力投送能力指数、军民综合运输保障能力指数及疏港交通能力指数.通过比较分析,一方面验证了方法的有效可用性,另一方面确定了各区域港口基于国家安全的运输保障能力的短板.针对短板制定了相应的改进方案,局部改进后,北部区大规模兵力投送能力指数从0.444提升到了0.747;南部区该指数从0.368提升到了0.776,二者的军民综合运输保障能力指数调整后可接近最大值1.000,该方案的提出为下一步港口基于国家安全的规划建设提供决策依据.As an important node of the strategic channel connecting land and sea,the port(i.e.,civilian coastal port)is likely to be expropriated when national security is threatened.Moreover,the collection/distribution capacity and guaranteed timeliness of the port are related to the process and even the result of national security military operations.This study focuses on the evaluation of the transport support capacity of coastal ports to cope with special task demands in special periods,such as territorial and sovereignty disputes.According to existing research,quantitative evaluations are lacking and evaluations are conducted from the perspective of supply.Thus,demand analysis in special periods is lacking.On the basis of literature review,by taking into account the task demands in special periods and special categories of transportation,as well as special port infrastructure requirements,this study sets the“supply-demand”two-sided index evaluation system,determines the special evaluation contents of ports,selects the evaluation index,establishes the“supply-demand”two-sided index evaluation model,takes the coastal ports of four zones as examples to conduct empirical research,and calculates and obtains the large-scale force projection capability index,civil-military transport support capability index,and port logistics capability index.Through comparative analysis,on one hand,the effectiveness and availability of the method are verified,and on the other hand,the weakness of the transport support capacity of the coastal port of each zone based on national security is determined.To address the weakness of the transport support capacity,the corresponding improvement scheme is established.After partial improvement,the large-scale force projection capability index in the northern region increases from 0.444 to 0.747,whereas that in the southern region increases from 0.368 to 0.776.After adjustment,the integrated civil-military transport support capacity index of the two regions may approach the maximum value of 1.000

关 键 词：水路运输 运输保障能力 供给-需求模型 民用港口 国家安全 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]