气候变化背景下玉米品种更替对新疆光热资源利用效率的影响  

Impact of Climate Change and Varieties Replacement on Maize Yield and Resource Use Efficiency in Xinjiang

作　　者：王勇 张镇涛 张方亮 郭世博 杨晓光[2] WANG Yong;ZHANG Zhen-tao;ZHANG Fang-liang;GUO Shi-bo;YANG Xiao-guang(Xinjiang Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Urumqi 830011,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193)

机构地区：[1]新疆生态气象与卫星遥感中心,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2020年第6期331-344,共14页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：中亚大气科学项目(caas201918);国家自然科学基金项目(41965002);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300101-03)。

摘　　要：以新疆地区乌兰乌苏和哈密站春玉米、喀什和库尔勒站夏玉米为研究对象,基于1981-2019年气象资料、1981-2018年农业气象试验站玉米作物资料和土壤资料,分析APSIM-Maize模型在新疆典型站点的适用性;并结合统计学方法,分析了气候变化背景下新疆春玉米和夏玉米生长营养和生殖生长阶段,以及生长季内有效热时数和有效辐射的变化特征;采用调参验证后的APSIM-Maize模型,明确了气候变化背景下品种更替对玉米产量和光热资源利用效率的影响。结果表明:调参验证后的APSIM-Maize模型可较好地模拟研究区域春玉米和夏玉米的生育期和产量。气候变化背景下玉米生长季内热量资源和辐射资源呈增加趋势,其中春玉米以生殖生长阶段延长为主,夏玉米以营养生长阶段的延长为主。研究时段内玉米生育期缩短、产量降低,但品种更替使玉米生育期延长、产量提高,其中春玉米表现为生育期延长,生殖生长阶段占全生育期比例提高,而夏玉米则表现为生育期缩短趋势的减小。同时,品种更替也显著提升了玉米生长季内的光热资源利用效率。Studying the effect of varieties replacement on the heat and radiation resources use efficiency can provide a scientific reference for adapting to climate change.The Wulanwusu spring maize,Hami spring maize,Kashgar summer maize,and Korla summer maize in Xinjiang were selected as the research objects.Based on the meteorology data(1981-2019),maize field trial data(1981-2018)from agro-meteorological experiment stations,and soil data,the adaptability of APSIM-Maize model in the typical sites in Xinjiang was analyzed.The accumulated effective thermal time(AcTT)and accumulated photosynthesis radiation(AcPAR)during vegetative growing period(VGP),reproductive growing period(RGP),and whole growing period(WGP)of Xinjiagn spring maize and summer maize were calculated.Then,the influence of climate change on maize yield and heat/radiation resources use efficiency were analyzed under the scenarios of varieties replacement or not by the validated APSIM-Maize model.The results showed that:(1)the validated APSIM model had better adaptability in spring or summer maize development and yield formation at the typical sites in Xinjiang.(2)The AcTT and AcPAR in the WGP showed an increasing trend,of which spring maize mainly increased in the RGP,and summer maize mainly increased in the VGP.(3)The length of maize growing period was shortened,and yield was reduced by climate change.But the varieties replacement had alleviated these adverse effect and increased yield.Among them,the spring maize showed an extension of growing period,and the proportion of RGP in WGP was increased,while summer maize showed a decrease in the shortening trend of growing period.At the same time,the heat resources and radiation resources use efficiency during maize growing period were also significantly increased by varieties replacement.

关 键 词：气候变化 新疆玉米 APSIM模型 生长发育 产量 资源利用效率 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学] S513[农业科学—农业基础科学]