ENSO事件对中国森林火险天气的影响  

Impacts of ENSO events on forest fire weather of China

作　　者：田晓瑞[1] 宗学政 舒立福[1] 王明玉[1] 赵凤君[1] TIAN Xiao-rui;ZONG Xue-zheng;SHU Li-fu;WANG Ming-yu;ZHAO Feng-jun(Research Institute of Forest Ecology,Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100091,China).)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所/国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点实验室,北京100091

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2020年第5期1487-1495,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0600106);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(CAFYBB2016SY014)资助。

摘　　要：ENSO事件影响中国的气候和森林火险天气,研究ENSO事件对中国各植被区火险天气的影响对于提高森林火险预报准确性有科学和实践意义。利用1951-2016年中国地面国际交换站气候资料的日值数据集(V3.0)数据计算每日的森林火险天气指数(FWI),根据MODIS过火区产品计算各植被区2001-2016年的森林过火面积,分别按事件情景(弱、中、强和超强厄尔尼诺事件以及弱、中和强拉尼娜事件)统计各植被区对应的火险期气温、降水、FWI和过火面积。结果表明:1950-2016年,共发生19次厄尔尼诺事件和14次拉尼娜事件。受强或超强厄尔尼诺事件影响,西北地区春季火险期的日均最高气温明显升高,而中温带半干旱草原区春季火险期的日均最高气温在中厄尔尼诺年显著降低。厄尔尼诺年,南方和西南林区火险期的降水量一般会增加,中、低强度的拉尼娜事件会减少大部分区域的火险期降水量,但强拉尼娜事件导致大部分林区火险期的降水量增加。弱厄尔尼诺事件导致南方林区FWI降低;强或超强厄尔尼诺事件导致南方和西南林区的FWI有所降低,而北方林区的FWI有所升高。ENSO事件对各植被区FWI的影响存在显著的空间差异性。2001-2016年,当火险期的季节火险严重程度(SSR)显著变化时,暖温带湿润/半湿润地区落叶阔叶林区、中北亚热带湿润地区阔叶林区和热带南亚热带湿润地区阔叶林区的过火面积与SSR的变化一致,其他区域的过火面积受ENSO事件的影响不明显。The ENSO events affect climate and fire danger of China. It would be helpful for improving fire danger forecast to understand the impacts of ENSO events on fire weather for various ecological zones in the country. We calculated the fire weather index(FWI) using the daily climatic dataset(V3.0) of international exchange weather stations in China during 1951-2016. The burned areas in forests for each ecological zone in 2001-2016 were derived from MODIS fire products. Temperature, precipitation, FWI and burned areas in fire season were estimated for each ecological zone by ENSO events(weak, medium, strong, and super strong El Niňo events and weak, medium, and strong La Niňa events). The results showed that there were 19 El Niňo events and 14 La Niňa events during 1950-2016. The average daily maximum temperature of the spring fire season increased significantly in the northwestern region with the influence of strong or super strong El Niňo event, while the temperature reduced significantly in the medium El Niňo event for mid-temperate semi-arid grassland. Precipitation in fire season generally increased in El Niňo events in southern and southwestern forest regions. It would be reduced in most areas affected by the low and medium intensity La Niňa event, but be increased during the strong La Nina event. The fire weather indices of southern forest regions decreased due to the weak El Niňo event. The FWI of the northern forest regions increased with the strong or super strong El Niňo event, and reduced in the southern and southwestern forest areas. There was a significant spatial difference on the FWI for some ecological zones with the impacts of the El Niňo/La Niňa events. The burned areas showed a consistent change trend with seasonal severity rating(SSR) during 2001-2016 when the SSR changed significantly for the regions of deciduous broad-leaved forest in humid/semihumid areas of warm temperate zone, broad-leaved forest in the middle north subtropical humid areas, and broad-leaved forest in tropical and

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 拉尼娜 森林火险天气 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]