断层协调比方法在云南地区地震预测中的应用研究  

Application of Fault Coordination Ratio Method on Earthquake Prediction in Yunnan Area

作　　者：李智蓉[1] 付虹[1] 洪敏[1] 李腊月[2] Li Zhirong;Fu Hong;Hong Min;Li Layue(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,China;The First Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,Tianjin 300180,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,昆明650224 [2]中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180

出　　处：《中国地震》2020年第1期46-54,共9页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：云南省地震局青年基金“云南地区断层活动协调比和定点形变异常在地震预测中的综合应用”(2017K06)项目资助。

摘　　要：采用断层协调比方法,对云南省内所有跨断层场地进行了计算,利用3倍标准差为阈值,统计分析协调比参数单测点单项异常、单测点和多测点准同步异常与云南省内M≥6地震的关系。结果表明多测点协调比准同步异常与云南省内M≥6地震有很好的对应关系,在研究时段内出现的14次准同步异常后的1~16个月统计范围内,均有M≥6地震发生,无一虚报,且对应地震集中分布于川滇菱形块体内,占比64%。因此,跨断层多测点协调比准同步异常可作为年度判定指标运用于日常数据跟踪分析。In this paper,the fault coordination ratio method is used to calculate all data of cross-fault sites in Yunnan Province.Taking three-standard deviation as the threshold value,we statistically analyze the relationships between occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above in Yunnan Province with coordination ratio single parameter anomaly,and single measurement point and multi-measurement quasi-synchronization anomaly.The results show that the multi-point coordination ratio quasi-synchronous anomaly has a good correspondence with the M≥6 earthquake in Yunnan Province.The earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above occurred in about 1~16 months within the statistical range after 14 quasi-synchronous anomalies occurred during the study period without a single false report.Moreover,about 64%of corresponding earthquakes are concentrated in the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond-shaped block.Therefore,cross-fault multi-measurement coordina-tion ratio quasi-synchronous anomalies can be used as annual judgment indicators for daily data tracking analysis.

关 键 词：云南地区 跨断层测量 协调比异常 地震危险性 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]