人民币汇率改革和人民币国际化:超越市场和管制的第三条路径  

Reforming Renminbi’s Exchange Rate and Renminbi Internationalization:A Third Path beyond Markets and Controls

作　　者：沈伟[1,2] Shen Wei(Shanghai Jiao Tong University Law School)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学法学院,上海200030 [2]英国伦敦政治经济学院

出　　处：《区域与全球发展》2020年第3期38-76,156,共40页Area Studies and Global Development

摘　　要：人民币国际化需要一定的内部和外部条件,包括人民币的可兑换性和人民币汇率的市场化。人民币的汇率形成机制是人民币国际化的重要和必需条件。货币的汇率形成机制有市场化机制和政府主导机制两种。我国在推进人民币国际化进程中,对人民币的汇率形成机制采取了介于市场化机制和政府主导机制之间的第三条路径,即有限政府规制的市场化机制。本文采用事件研究法,主要对21世纪前二十年人民币汇率改革和人民币汇率形成机制的市场化历程,特别是市场和政府作为“看不见的手”和“看得见的手”之间的交互和复合作用机制,进行审视和回顾。这第三条路径受到许多复杂事件和因素的作用和影响,外部因素包括全球金融危机、中美贸易摩擦,内部因素包括金融体系改革、经济增长、抑制通胀和去杠杆化等。与“看得见的手”和“看不见的手”这两种路径相比,第三条路径的操作更为复杂,也更难驾驭。Renminbi internationalization needs internal and external conditions such as renminbi’s convertibility and renminbi’s marketization.Reforming renminbi’s exchange rate is a must and necessary condition.There are two basic ways of shaping the exchange rate:marketbased and government-led.China has adopted a third path,namely the market-based mechanism with limited government regulation.This article takes an event study approach and investigates the key reformative measures and events in the past two decades in the 21st century,especially the interaction and composite mechanism between the market and government as the invisible hand and the visible hand.This third path is influenced by a number of complex events and factors,including the global financial crisis,trade frictions between the United States and China,and internal factors such as financial system reform,economic growth,inflation containment and deleveraging.Compared to the two traditional paths of the visible hand and the invisible hand,the third path is more complex to operate and more difficult to navigate.

关 键 词：人民币汇率形成机制 人民币国际化 金融体系改革 市场化 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]