非法采伐及相关贸易统计数据缺乏的估算方法学综述  

Review of Estimation Methodologies to Solve the Lack of Statistical Data on Illegal Logging and Related Trade

作　　者：杨春芳 杨红强[1,2,3] Yang Chunfang;Yang Hongqiang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037;Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products,NFGA,Nanjing 210037;Research Center for the Yangtze River Delta's Socioeconomic Development,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家林业和草原局林产品经济贸易研究中心,南京210037 [3]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,南京210093

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第3期88-96,共9页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”(编号:14AJY014);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“中国林产品生命周期碳减排潜力与减排成本效益评估”(编号:SJKY19_0902)。

摘　　要：非法采伐及相关的木材产品贸易对应对气候变化和实现可持续发展产生严重影响。非法采伐及相关贸易是世界各国共同面临的全球性问题。了解非法采伐及相关木材产品贸易的规模对于国际社会有效打击非法采伐及相关贸易具有重要意义,但非法林业活动的秘密性质使其规模和价值难以估计。在此背景下,文章通过回顾国内外有关非法采伐及相关贸易的文献成果,梳理了学者在非法采伐及相关贸易的定义、影响及治理对策等方面的研究结论,在此基础上重点归纳总结了几种用于定量估计非法采伐及相关木材产品贸易规模的估算方法,以期为非法采伐及相关贸易定量实证研究提供方法学参考。研究发现:(1)用于估算非法采伐及相关木材产品贸易规模的常用方法包括木材平衡分析、投入产出分析、贸易数据差异、进口来源分析和专家调查法;(2)不同的估算方法重点涉及不同的方面,每一种方法都有明显的优缺点;(3)用于估算非法采伐及相关贸易的数据源的质量以及每种估算方法固有的缺陷会影响估计结果的可靠性。文章从明确界定非法采伐及相关贸易的概念、准确统计木材合法生产消费数据、调整改进研究估算方法、加强定量实证研究4个方面对非法采伐及相关贸易问题的未来研究方向进行展望。Illegal logging and related trade in wood products have a serious impact on climate change and sustainable development.Illegal logging and related trade is a global problem faced by all countries in the world.Understanding the scale of illegal logging and related trade in timber products is of great significance for the international community to effectively combat illegal logging and related trade,but the clandestine nature of illegal forestry activities makes their scale and value difficult to estimate.In this context,this paper reviewed the domestic and foreign literatures on illegal logging and related trade,combed the research conclusions of scholars on the definition,impact and governance measures of illegal logging and related trade,and on this basis,summarized several estimation methods for quantitative estimation of illegal logging and related trade in wood products,with a view to providing methodological references for quantitative empirical research on illegal logging and related trade.The study found that:(1)the common methods used to estimate the scale of illegal logging and related timber products trade include timber balance analysis,input-output analysis,trade data discrepancies,import source analysis and expert survey methods;(2)different estimation methods focus on different aspects,and each method has obvious advantages and disadvantages;(3)the quality of the data sources used to estimate illegal logging and related trade,as well as the inherent defects of each method,can affect the reliability of the estimation results.Finally,this paper looked forward to the future research direction of illegal logging and related trade from four aspects of clearly defining the concept of illegal logging and related trade,accurately counting statistics data of legal production and consumption of timber,adjusting and improving research estimation methods,and strengthening quantitative empirical research.

关 键 词：非法采伐 木材产品贸易 非法林业活动 定量估算方法 综述 

分 类 号：F326.25[经济管理—产业经济] F762.4