利率市场化进程中我国混合型货币政策调控分析  

The Analysis of China′s Mixed Monetary Policy in the Process of Interest Rate Marketization

作　　者：刘博[1] 钱军辉 LIU Bo;QIAN Junhui(Antai College of Economics&Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2020年第3期26-34,共9页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673183)

摘　　要：目前中国正处在由数量型货币政策转型为价格型货币政策的关键阶段,实施数量价格混合型货币政策能够进一步提高货币政策的调控效果,维护宏观经济平稳运行。在新凯恩斯主义分析框架基础上,引入了混合型货币政策的二次损失函数,刻画了一组包含混合预期的混合型货币政策规则,尽可能真实地刻画中国货币政策从数量型货币政策逐步转变为价格型货币政策的特征。最后,将混合型货币政策规则和新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、新凯恩斯IS曲线联立,组成了一个宏观经济的动态系统方程模型,并对混合型货币政策调控效果进行实证分析。实证结果表明:在混合型货币调控的框架下,数量型和价格型货币政策工具调控效果均具有显著性;混合型货币政策具有显著的时变性,利率市场化提高了价格型货币政策工具对宏观经济的调控力度,削弱了数量型货币政策工具对宏观经济的调控力度。At present,China is in the key stage of transforming quantitative monetary policy into price monetary policy.Implementing mixed quantitative and price monetary policy can further improve the regulatory effect of monetary policy and maintain the stable operation of macro-economy.Based on the framework of New Keynesian Dynamic Economic System Framework,this paper introduces the quadratic loss function of mixed monetary policy,describes a set of mixed monetary policy rules with mixed expectations,and describes the characteristics of China′s monetary policy from quantitative monetary policy to price monetary policy as authentically as possible.Finally,this paper combines the mixed monetary policy rules with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the New Keynesian IS Curve to form a dynamic system of equations model for the macro-economy,and makes an empirical analysis of the regulatory effect of the mixed monetary policy.The empirical results show that under the framework of mixed monetary control,the effects of quantitative and price monetary policy instruments are quite significant;mixed monetary policy has significant time-varying characteristics;interest rate marketization improves the macroeconomic control of price monetary policy instruments,and weakens the macroeconomic control of quantitative monetary policy instruments.

关 键 词：混合型货币政策规则 新凯恩斯动态经济系统 利率市场化 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]