中国林业碳贡献区域分布及潜力预测  

Regional distribution and potential forecast of China’s forestry carbon contributions

作　　者：许恩银 王维枫 聂影[1,2] 杨红强[1,2,4] XU En-yin;WANG Wei-feng;NIE Ying;YANG Hong-qiang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China;Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products,SFA,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China;College of Biology and Environment,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China;Center for the Yangtze River Delta’s Socioeconomic Development,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037 [2]国家林业局林产品经济贸易研究中心,江苏南京210037 [3]南京林业大学生物与环境学院,江苏南京210037 [4]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2020年第5期36-45,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”(批准号:14AJY014);江苏省“333高层次人才工程”科研项目“全球林产品贸易碳流动及碳减排潜力研究”(批准号:BRA2018070)。

摘　　要：“国家自主贡献”(INDCs)鼓励各国自觉承担减排责任,林业部门的碳贡献及潜力对我国承担减排替代及合理制定INDCs目标具有积极意义。通过生物量转换因子连续函数法和土壤有机碳储量推算法,利用第八次森林资源清查数据,模拟预测三种森林生长情境下各林区承诺期内碳贡献分布变化情况。研究结果表明:①至第八次森林资源清查结束,三大林区总碳储量为48.63 PgC,总蓄积量为188.02×10^8 m^3。②至2030年,自然增长情境(Ⅰ)、按原面积比例分配情境(Ⅱ)和人工林高配比情境(Ⅲ)下林区总碳储量将分别增加1.70、6.90和7.11 PgC,蓄积量分别增加53.04×10^8、61.70×10^8和62.38×10^8m^3。③2013—2030年期间,各林区碳贡献均保持增长,但东北和西南林区贡献率逐年下降,南方林区贡献率上升趋势明显。④敏感性分析结果表明,每提高5%南方林区新造林面积比例,三大林区的碳储量和蓄积量将提升6 TgC和7×10^5m^3。为充分发挥林业在缓解气候变化中的潜力,应提高南方林区的新造林面积比例,为用材林制定合适的采伐模式,增加杉木和桉树等速生树种面积,以维持较高的碳贡献增长速度和保障木材生产安全的优势。在东北林区和西南林区发展混交林,对过熟林进行可持续经营管理,人工促进更新过熟林以提高森林更新速度,从而改善碳贡献率下降和林龄偏大的现象。‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’(INDCs)encourages countries to voluntarily assume responsibility for carbon emission reduction.The regional distribution and potential of China’s forestry carbon are of positive significance for China to take responsibility for emission reduction and reasonably set the INDCs targets.Based on the 8th forest inventory data of China,the biomass expansion factor function and the soil organic carbon storage estimation algorithm are used to estimate the distribution of carbon contribution in the three major forest regions.This article also predicts the regional distribution change and the potential of carbon storage during the commitment period under three forest growth scenarios.The results show that:①By the end of the 8th forest inventory,the total carbon storage and volume in the three forest regions were 48.63 PgC and 188.02×10^8m^3.②By 2030,under the natural growth scenario(I),the distribution scenario according to the original area proportion(Ⅱ)and the high proportion scenario of plantation(Ⅲ),the total carbon storage will increase 1.70,6.90 and 7.11PgC,and the total volume will increase 53.04×10^8,61.70×10^8 and 62.38×10^8m^3 respectively.③During the period 2013-2030,the carbon contributions of the three forest regions tend to keep growing.However,the carbon contribution rate of the northeast and southwest forest regions decreases year by year,while the south forest region presents an obvious rising trend.④Sensitivity analysis results show that the increase of the total carbon storage and volume will be 6 TgC and 7×10^5m^3 for every 5%increase in the proportion of afforestation area in the south forest region.In order to give full play to the potential of forestry in climate change mitigation,this article puts forward the following suggestions:For the south forest region,it is necessary to increase the proportion of afforestation area,establish a suitable harvesting system for timber forests and increase the afforestation area of fast-growing t

关 键 词：林业 碳贡献 生物量转换因子连续函数法 区域分布 潜力预测 

分 类 号：S757[农业科学—森林经理学]