安徽省“县改市”的经济增长效应评估——基于合成控制法的研究  

Evaluation of the Impact of County-to-City Upgrading Policyon Economic Growth in Anhui Province——A Study Based on Synthetic Control Method

作　　者：刘春花[1] LIU Chunhua(Department of Management,Chuzhou City Vocation College,Chuzhou 239000,China)

机构地区：[1]滁州城市职业学院管理系,安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《安徽电气工程职业技术学院学报》2020年第2期43-50,共8页Journal of Anhui Electrical Engineering Professional Technique College

摘　　要：县改市政策与县域经济发展具有内在的联系,县改市政策直接影响着县域经济的发展。文章利用安徽省明光、桐城和宁国三个撤县设市地区作为县改市政策的自然实验,运用项目评价文献中前沿的合成控制法估计了县改市政策对地区经济增长的影响。研究发现,县改市政策对明光、桐城和宁国的经济增长有一定的促进作用,稳健性检验结果表明这种促进作用在统计上是显著的,在时间上呈先递增后递减的变动路径,在空间上存在异质性的影响。文章从财政分权、官员政治激励、产业集聚与地理区位等方面对此进行了合理分析,并提出了相应的对策建议。The county-to-city upgrading policy directly affects the development of county economy and there is an internal connection between them.In this paper,three counties in Anhui Province—Mingguang,Tongcheng and Ningguo—are used for the natural experiment and the synthetic control method in project evaluation literature is employed to assess the impact of the policy on the regional economy.According to the results,the county-to-city upgrading policy has certain effect on the economic growth of the three regions.The robustness test shows that the promoting effect is statistically significant,which changes in time from steady increase to steady decrease while displays heterogeneity in space.This paper makes a reasonable analysis from the aspects of fiscal decentralization,political incentives for officials,industrial agglomeration and geographical location,and puts forward corresponding suggestions.

关 键 词：县改市 经济增长 合成控制法 安慰剂检验 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]