考虑舒适度因素的出行价值模型  

A Travel Value Model Considering Comfort Factors

作　　者：张卫华 刘冉冉 颜鹏 黄志鹏 ZHANG Wei-hua;LIU Ran-ran;YAN Peng;HUANG Zhi-peng(School of Automotive and Traffie Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei Anhui 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2020年第5期116-122,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51878236,51578207);合肥市重点工程建设管理局科技项目(2019FFCJ4364)。

摘　　要：为了探究舒适度对出行者路径选择的影响,通过分析出行舒适度的影响因素,构建舒适度价值模型,从而建立考虑舒适度因素的出行价值模型。首先考虑行程时间、出行费用和舒适度3种出行价值的影响因素,建立出行价值模型;然后采用意愿调查法对出行者舒适度选择特征进行调查,以性别、年龄、出行方式、行程时间为特征变量,通过排序选择模型对舒适度选择概率进行标定,发现交通方式和行程时间两种影响因素对舒适度选择具有显著影响。通过计算出不同交通方式、不同行程时间对应的舒适度选择概率,从而得到不同出行状态下的舒适度概率分布,由此建立了基于舒适度排序选择模型的出行价值模型。最后以公交车出行价值为参考,进行算例分析,利用AHP层次分析法,对行程时间、出行费用和舒适度3种因素的单位价值进行判断,得出出行价值计算模型,分别针对考虑和不考虑舒适度的出行价值模型进行比较分析。结果表明,当考虑舒适度因素时,私家车和自行车的出行价值分别下降了2.6%和30.2%。由此可见考虑舒适度的出行价值模型能够更好地评价不同出行方式的价值差异。In order to explore the influence of comfort on traveler routing, the influencing factors of travel comfort are analyzed and a comfort value model is constructed to establish a travel value model considering comfort factors. First, considering the influencing factors of 3 travel values, including travel time, travel cost and comfort, a travel value model is established. Second, the comfort choice characteristics of travelers are investigated by using willingness survey method. Taking gender, age, travel mode and travel time as the characteristic variables, the comfort selection probability is calibrated by the ordered choice model. It is found that the 2 influencing factors(traffic mode and travel time) have significant influence on the comfort selection. By calculating the comfort selection probabilities corresponding to different traffic modes and different travel time, the comfort probability distributions under different travel conditions are obtained, thus the travel value model based on comfort ordered choice model is established. Finally, referencing to the bus travel value, a case study is carried out. The unit values of the factors of travel time, travel cost and comfort are judged by AHP, the travel value calculation model is obtained, and the travel value models considering/unconsidering comfort are comparatively analyzed. The result shows that when considering the comfort factor, the travel values of private cars and bicycles decreased by 2.6% and 30.2% respectively, indicating that the travel value model considering comfort can better evaluate the value difference of different travel modes.

关 键 词：城市交通 出行价值 排序选择模型 舒适度 层次分析法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]