日本非常规货币政策对中国产出的溢出效应研究  

The Impact of Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy on China's Output

作　　者：王若涵 阮加[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第1期82-86,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“负利率理论研究”(17BJ034)。

摘　　要：本文对日本非常规货币政策对中国产出的冲击方向和传导路径进行理论推导后,通过构建带有参数时变特征的TVP-VAR模型,探究日本央行全面宽松政策CE、量化质化双宽松宽松政策QQE和负利率政策NIRP时期对我国经济的溢出效应是如何从货币政策路径、中日贸易路径和资产价格路径传导的。之后,对不同规模企业的产出受到日本货币政策冲击的影响进行验证,结果表明:日本货币政策变动主要是通过中日贸易路径来对中国产出水平产生负面影响的。另外,本文发现日本宽松的货币政策对我国小型制造业企业的发展是有利的,而对大型制造业企业是不利的。After theoretically deducing the impact direction and transmission path of Japanese unconventional monetary policy on Chinese output,this paper explores the Bank of Japan's comprehensive loosening policies,quantitative and qualitative dualization and negative interest policies by constructing a TVP-VAR model with time-varying parameters.To find how is the spillover effect on China's economy transmitted from the monetary policy path,the Sino-Japanese trade path and the asset price path.Afterwards,it was verified that the output of enterprises of different sizes was affected by the impact of Japanese monetary policy.The results show that the changes in Japanese monetary policy mainly have a negative impact on China's output level through the Sino-Japanese trade path.In addition,this article finds that Japan's loose monetary policy is beneficial to the development of China's small manufacturing companies,but is not conducive to large manufacturing companies.

关 键 词：日本货币政策 负利率 溢出效应 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F823.13[经济管理—财政学] F124