国际原油价格对中国工业行业动态影响研究——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析  

Research on the dynamic impact of international crude oil price on China's Industrial Industry——Impulse response analysis based on VAR model

作　　者：聂炜(文/翻译) 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第1期87-90,178,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：中国原油国际依存度逐年提高,国际原油价格频繁大幅上涨和下跌,对我国工业行业影响越来越大。本文构建VAR模型采用2006-2019年的月度数据,实证研究国际原油价格对中国原油相关的五个工业行业的动态影响。研究表明:国际原油价格冲击对中国工业不同行业动态影响效应存在异质性;原油价格上涨对原油开采行业产出短期有促进作用,对原油依赖度高的行业有负向作用,从而导致PPI上升;国际原油价格下跌短期对产出有正向作用,如持续期较长将导致产出下降,PPI下降。因而,相关政府部门应根据原油价格上涨和下跌周期的不同,针对不同行业实施差异化的政策措施。The international dependence of China's crude oil has increased year by year,and the international crude oil price has been rising and falling sharply frequently,which has a growing impact on China's Industrial Industry.This paper constructs a VAR model using monthly data from 2006 to 2019 to empirically study the dynamic impact of international crude oil prices on five crude oil related industries in China.The results show that:the dynamic effect of international crude oil price shock on different industries in China is heterogeneous;the rise of crude oil price promotes the output of crude oil extraction industry in a short term and have a negative effect on industries with high dependence on crude oil,resulting in the rise of PPI;The decline of international crude oil price has a positive effect on output in the short term.If the duration is longer,it will lead to the decline of output and PPI.Therefore,the relevant government departments should implement differentiated policy measures for different industries according to the different periods of crude oil price rising and falling.

关 键 词：国际原油价格 工业产出 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]