基于改进logistic模型的中国研究生毕业生数预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of the Number of Graduate Students in China Based on Improved Logistic Model

作　　者：王文蕊 赵文英[2] Wang Wenrui;Zhao Wenying(Mudanjiang Normal University, Mudanjiang 157001, China)

机构地区：[1]牡丹江师范学院数学科学学院,黑龙江牡丹江157011 [2]牡丹江师范学院,黑龙江牡丹江157011

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2020年第11期162-164,共3页Heilongjiang Science

基　　金：牡丹江师范学院学位与研究生教育教学改革项目(MSY-YJG-2018YB014)。

摘　　要：为了能够为国家在制定招生和就业相关政策方面提供有借鉴意义的参考数据,依据1999年—2018年中国研究生毕业生数的变化特点,对Logistic模型进行改进。利用改进的模型对毕业生数进行预测,预测结果与经典Logistic模型预测结果相比,可信度更高,可见,改进的模型预测结果可提供有价值的参考。In this paper,the logistic model has been improved according to the changing characteristics of the number of graduate students in China from 1999 to 2018.The number of graduates is predicted using the improved model.The results of the prediction are more reliable than those of the classical logistic model.Therefore,the prediction results of the improved model can provide valuable reference for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies.

关 键 词：改进的logistic模型 中国研究生毕业生数 预测 分析 

分 类 号：G647.38[文化科学—高等教育学]