基于DEA冗余分析的泥石流危险度评价  

Debris-flow risk assessment based on DEA redundancy analysis

作　　者：殷启睿 苏娜 YIN Qirui;SU Na(School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410075, China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2020年第3期30-34,共5页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

摘　　要：针对传统的泥石流评价方法在因子选取及权重确定方面存在的问题,引入原用于计算生产效率的DEA模型,并将其拓展至危险度评价,将泥石流成灾过程视为广义生产系统以计算泥石流沟的相对成灾效率,得到沟道的危险度排名。DEA方法不仅可按生产最优原则为因子自动赋权,更可通过冗余分析筛选次要因子,建立的泥石流危险度多因子评价体系能较完整地表征泥石流沟的孕灾环境。最后通过实例验证了评价体系的有效性,且进一步对评价中效率表现不佳的泥石流沟进行冗余分析,得到沟道低效率的原因,并明确了其主要的致灾因素。Contraposing the problems existing in the traditional debris flow evaluation method about factor selection and weight determination,the DEA model originally used to calculate production efficiency was introduced and extended to the risk assessment.Regarding the debris flow disaster process as a generalized production system to calculate the debris flow,the relative disaster efficiency of the ditch is ranked by the risk of the channel.The DEA method not only automatically assigns factors according to the production optimization principle,but also filters the secondary factors using redundant analysis,which established multi-factor evaluation system for debris flow risk can completely characterize the disaster-preventing environment of debris flow.The results of the example test verified the validity of the evalution system and the debris flow ditch with poor efficiency performance in the evaluation is further analyzed using redundancy analysis,the cause of the channel inefficiency is obtained,and the main disaster factors are identified.

关 键 词：危险度评价 数据包络分析 泥石流 冗余分析 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]