基于GTAP模型的中英双边FTA经济效应分析  

A Study on the Economic Effects of China-UK Bilateral FTA An Analysis Based on GTAP Model

作　　者：何一鸣[1] 陈柳霖 He Yiming;Chen Liulin(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao Shandong 226000)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《对外经贸》2020年第6期6-11,50,共7页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

摘　　要：在中美贸易摩擦和英国脱欧背景下,中英两国政府对双边FTA谈判的意愿愈加强烈。本文在分析中英贸易现状的基础上,利用GTAP模型对两国缔结自由贸易协定(FTA)产生的政策效果进行模拟分析,中国和英国缔结自由贸易协定产生的政策效果产生的政策效果随着双边国家关税的不断降低而扩大,影响主要包括双边FTA有利于推动中国和英国GDP、福利、贸易条件、进出口等宏观经济发展,中英两国在FTA下的行业产出水平也会因为贸易创造效应而出现差异化调整,促进双方产业的升级。由于贸易的转移效应,“一带一路”非欧盟国家在全球价值链下出现了产业结构调整。因此,在缔结FTA以后,中国既要把握其带来的机遇,也要做好相应的应对措施。Based on the analysis of the status quo of Sino-British trade, this paper uses the GTAP model to simulate the policy effects of China and the United Kingdom to conclude a free trade agreement(FTA), and finds that the policy effects of the conclusion of free trade agreements between China and the United Kingdom have both positive effects. There are also negative effects, and the resulting policy effects are expanding with the continuous reduction of tariffs in bilateral countries: positive impacts mainly include bilateral FTAs that are conducive to promoting China and UK GDP, welfare, terms of trade, import and export, and other macroeconomic developments. The level of industry output under the FTA will also be differentially adjusted due to the trade creation effect, which will promote the upgrading of both industries. Due to the transfer effect of trade, the "Belt and Road" non-EU countries have undergone industrial restructuring under the global value chain. The negative impact is mainly that the Sino-British bilateral FTA will lead to an expansion of the trade deficit between China and the United Kingdom, and will have an impact on the macroeconomics of the "Belt and Road" non-EU countries. Therefore, after the conclusion of the FTA, China must not only seize the opportunities it brings, but also take appropriate countermeasures to prevent its uncertainty about China’s "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

关 键 词：中英FTA GTAP模型 经济效应 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]