中国经济增长的结构效应与技术效应驱动力探究——以1985~2018年中国31个省份面板数据为例  

The Research of the Structural Effect and Technology Effect Towards the Growth of Chinese Economy——Take the Panel Data of 31 Chinese Provinces from 1985~2018 as an Example

作　　者：辛星 Xin Xing(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2020年第7期3-12,共10页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

摘　　要：经济结构的改善和生产技术的提高对经济增长有重要的作用。为了更加细致的探究宏观经济的结构效应和技术效应对经济增长的影响,本文选取全国31个省、自治区、直辖市1985~2018年34年间的面板数据,利用转换份额分析模型(Shift-share Analysis)测算其结构效应和技术效应,并进行实证分析。回归结果表明结构效应的不断释放是长期以来中国经济增长的引擎。而随着结构效应红利逐渐释放完毕,中国经济即将迎来需要依靠内部经济效率提高的发展阶段。From 2010,nevertheless,the growth of economic began to calm down,with the decrease of structure bonus,the slow pace of technology innovation.In order to probe the inner mechanism of economic growth attach to the structural effect and inner increase effect,this article gather the latest data about some index of Chinese macroeconomic.With the help of the revised Kuznets Labor Model,we divided the growth rate of labor into structural effect as well as inner increase effect,and selected the data from 31 provinces in China to do regression with the GDP per capita from 1985 to 2018.The results of regression shows that the engine of Chinese economic is the spread of the structural effect.As the structural effect decreasing,it’s time to impel technology innovation to promote the inner increase effect,even though China doesn’t prepare well for the transition observed from the regression results.

关 键 词：产业结构 结构效应 技术效应 经济增长 技术驱动 宏观调控 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F123.3