基于CMIP6强迫模拟分析人为气溶胶的气候效应(一)——介绍NUIST模式评估结果  

A modeling study on anthropogenic aerosol effects based on CMIP6 forcing.part Ⅰ:NUIST model results and corresponding estimation

作　　者：史湘军[1,2] 沈沛洁 朱寿鹏 吉璐莹 张海鹏 刘娇娇 陈伯民 李震坤[3] SHI Xiangjun;SHEN Peijie;ZHU Shoupeng;JI Luying;ZHANG Haipeng;LIU Jiaojiao;CHEN Bomin;LI Zhenkun(Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Science and Technology Innovation Team for East Asian Monsoon and Regional Climate Change/Earth System Model Center,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;International Pacific Research Center,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu 96822,USA;Climate Center of Shanghai,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/东亚季风与区域气候变化科技创新团队/地球系统模拟中心,江苏南京210044 [2]美国夏威夷大学国际太平洋研究中心,夏威夷檀香山96822 [3]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第3期506-515,共10页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604000);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41775095);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费(2243141601067)。

摘　　要：为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0.45(±0.28)W·m^-2。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0.34(±0.01)W·m^-2,与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models,AeroComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0.10(±0.30)W·m^-2,明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。The ultimate purpose of this study is to estimate anthropogenic aerosol effects on the planetary energy balance based on hypothetical anthropogenic aerosol forcings given by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).In order to achieve the confidence of these estimates,we also analyzed how natural variability contributes to uncertainty in these estimates.The climate model used in this study is NESM,which is an Earth system model developed by Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST).The anthropogenic aerosol forcing officially recommended by CMIP6 is a hypothetical dataset derived from the second version of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology(MACv2-SP).MACv2-SP is implemented into the NESM model to represent anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect.The NESM model results show that the global annual mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible band and the normalized change in cloud droplet number(dNovrN) calculated from MACv2-SP are 0.025 and 1.075,respectively.The anthropogenic aerosol forcings used in this study are similar to those in the paper which introduces MACv2-SP.This indicates that the MACv2-SP is used correctly in the NESM model.In the present study,the fixed-SST method is used to diagnose the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF).We set up two experiments:Base and Both.The Base experiment turns off MACv2-SP,while the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and Twomey effect described by MACv2-SP are used in the Both experiment.The Base and Both experiments results show that anthropogenic aerosol ERF is estimated at -0.45 W·m^-2 .The contribution to this ERF from direct radiative effect is -0.34 W·m^-2 ,which is significantly greater than its corresponding standard deviation (0.01 W·m^-2 ).The contribution to this ERF from aerosol-induced changes in clouds (i.e.semi-direct effect and Twomey effect) is -0.10 W·m^-2 ,which is only one third of its corresponding standard deviation (0.30 W·m^-2 ).These ind

关 键 词：CMIP6 NESM 人为气溶胶 有效辐射强迫 不确定性 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]