宁波市白溪水库水文特征演变规律分析  

Analysis of hydrologic characteristics evolution law in Baixi Reservoir,Ningbo city

作　　者：宋培兵 孙嘉辉 王超[3] 景晓 杨关设 雷晓辉[3] SONG Peibing;SUN Jiahui;WANG Chao;JING Xiao;YANG Guanshe;LEI Xiaohui(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China;National Key Laboratory of Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Control,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Ningbo Raw Water Group Co.,Ltd.,Ningbo 315000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]山东大学土建与水利学院,山东济南250061 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [4]宁波市原水集团有限公司,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《人民长江》2020年第4期100-104,163,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51709275);浙江省水利科技项目(RA1703);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407405)。

摘　　要：基于宁波市白溪水库长系列水文气象资料,采用不均匀系数、完全调节系数衡量入库流量的年内分配情况,通过极值比、变差系数、滑动平均法、累积距平法探究白溪水库降雨量、入库流量/年径流量的年际变化趋势,运用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验和有序聚类检验探究径流量的可能突变年份,根据Morlet小波函数分析径流量的周期性。研究结果表明:受梅汛、台汛影响,白溪水库月入库流量呈双峰型曲线;降雨量的极值比、变差系数比入库流量的小,各阶段降雨量和入库流量的变化趋势并不完全一致;白溪水库年径流量呈略微增长趋势,其变化率为0.0035亿m^3/a;多年平均径流量为2.54亿m^3,近10 a平均径流量为2.68亿m^3;白溪水库年径流量的突变年份为1971年,且存在着21,10,4 a的变化周期。According to the long-term series of climate and hydrological data of the Baixi reservoir in Ningbo City,we estimated the annual runoff distribution by the nonuniformity coefficient method and the fully regulated coefficient method.The interannual variation trend of precipitation and runoff in the Baixi reservoir were forecast by the extreme values ratio method,variation coefficient method,moving average method and cumulative anomaly method.Also,we detected the abrupt changes in the runoff by the Mann-Kendall test,sliding t-test and sequential clustering analysis,and analyzed the periodic change in the runoff by Morlet wavelet.The results show that as a result of Plum rains and typhoon events,the distribution of monthly runoff in the Baixi Reservoir displays a bimodal curve.The extremes ratio and variation coefficient of precipitation are smaller than that of the runoff.Therefore,the trend of precipitation is not identical to that of runoff at different spatial scales.In addition,annual runoff of the Baixi reservoir shows a slight upward trend with a change rate of 0.35 million m^3/a.The average annual runoff is 254 million m^3 and the average runoff during the past 10 years is 268 million m^3.The abrupt change in the runoff occurs in 1971,and runoff shows changes in periodicity of 21,10 and 4 years.

关 键 词：径流量 降雨量 变差系数 MANN-KENDALL 小波分析 白溪水库 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]