基于随机理论的河道洪水扩散波模型改进  

Improvement on flood wave diffusion model in river channel based on random theory

作　　者：齐凡 孙颖娜[1] 谢世尧 李娜 QI Fan;SUN Yingna;XIE Shiyao;LI Na(School of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学水利电力学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《人民长江》2020年第5期99-101,124,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：黑龙江省高校基本科研业务费项目(KJCXZD201722)。

摘　　要：河道洪水演算在洪水预报、水资源工程规划及水利工程建设等领域有着广泛的应用。以河道洪水扩散波方程为基础,基于随机理论,考虑模型参数的随机性,将参数作为随机变量进行分析探讨,建立了河道洪水随机扩散波模型,并借助于计算机和数学手段求解出流过程的均值和方差。为了验证随机扩散波模型的适用性,将其应用于汉江的襄阳-皇庄河段洪水演算。结果表明:在河道洪水演算中引入随机理论,在计算出流过程的均值的同时可以给出出流的均方差,从而确定出流过程的概率分布,可为防洪风险分析等工程实际应用提供科学依据。River channel flood calculation is widely used in flood forecasting,water resources engineering planning and water conservancy projects construction.In this paper,based on the river channel flood diffusion wave equation and random theory and in considering of the randomness of the model parameters,the parameters were analyzed and discussed as random variables,so the random diffusion wave model was established,and the mean and variance of the outflow process were solved numerically.In order to verify the applicability of random diffusion wave model,the model was applied to the flood calculation of Xiangyang-Huangzhuang reach in Hanjiang River.The results showed that by introducing random theory into the river channel flood calculation,the mean value and variance of the outflow process could be calculated at the same time,so the probability distribution of the outflow process was determined,which could provide scientific basis for the practical application of flood control risk analysis and other engineering applications.

关 键 词：河道洪水 扩散波 随机S曲线 汉江 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]