中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾  

Highlights of climate prediction study and operation in China over the past decades

作　　者：王会军[1] 任宏利[2] 陈活泼 马洁华[1,3] 田宝强 孙博[1,3] 黄艳艳[1,3] 段明铿[1,3] 汪君[1,3] 王琳[2,4] 周放[1,3] WANG Huijun;REN Hongli;CHEN Huopo;MA Jiehua;TIAN Baoqiang;SUN Bo;HUANG Yanyan;DUAN Mingkeng;WANG Jun;WANG Lin;ZHOU Fang(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院大气科学系,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象学报》2020年第3期317-331,共15页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600703)。

摘　　要：天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。Weather forecast means day-to-day meteorological prediction for up to two weeks,while climate prediction is a long-term prediction from one month to decades or even longer.In China,climate prediction started quite early,both in scientific research and in meteorological operation.A lot of achievements in climate research and prediction application have been made over the past halfcentury.In this paper,the authors briefly highlight these achievements,including the initial recognition of the East Asian monsoon,Meiyu and cold surge,climate prediction development in the early stage,development of dynamical climate prediction,development of operational climate prediction model and its initialization,research on statistical climate prediction approach,intensive study on the variability and predictability of East Asian climate system,expansion of the scope of climate prediction and development of new prediction approaches,etc.Prospects on climate prediction in the future are given as well in the last part of this paper,with the focus on multi-scale climate variability and their interaction,intra-seasonal to inter-decadal climate prediction,improvements of the climate system model and initialization,and hybrid dynamical-statistical climate prediction methods.

关 键 词：气候预测 气候系统模式 东亚季风 季节内气候变异 年代际气候变化 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]