近百年中国气候变暖趋势之再评估  

Re-assessing climatic warming in China since the last century

作　　者：严中伟[1,2] 丁一汇 翟盘茂[4] 宋连春[3] 曹丽娟[5] 李珍[1] YAN Zhongwei;DING Yihui;ZHAI Panmao;SONG Lianchun;CAO Lijuan;LI Zhen(Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [5]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2020年第3期370-378,共9页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“政府间国际科技创新合作/港澳台科技创新合作”重点专项项目(2017YFE0133600);中国科学院先导专项(XDA19030402);中国科学院国际合作专项(134111KYSB20160010)。

摘　　要：基于均一化的气温观测序列集,1900年以来中国气温升高趋势1.3-1.7℃/(100 a)。这个已用于新近的中国国家气候变化评估报告的结果,远高于早期的评估结果(0.5-0.8℃/(100 a))。回顾了始于20世纪80年代的中国百年气温序列的研究,指出其中关键进展在于近年来研发了均一化的长期站点气温观测序列集。早年构建的中国气温序列中,20世纪40年代前异常偏高,除了战乱期间观测缺失严重及记录代表性问题外,主要是50年代前后很多台站迁址导致早期气温观测值系统性偏高所致,从而低估长期变暖趋势。40年代前后部分区域确实偏暖,但由于不同区域气温波动位相不一致,因而大范围平均序列中并不明显。这一事实可与近年发展的"北极暖-大陆冷"等气候变化动力学理论以及一些区域气温代用资料相印证。近几十年城市化对中国气温变化趋势之贡献大小尚存争议,但远非主导因素。The regional mean surface air temperature(SAT)in China has risen by 1.3—1.7℃/(100 a)since 1900,according to recently developed homogenized observations.This estimate is larger than earlier ones(0.5—0.8℃/(100 a))adopted in the early National Reports of Climate Change in China.The present study reviews the studies of the long-term SAT series of China,highlighting the homogenization of station observations as a key progress.The SAT series of China in early studies showed a prominent warm peak in the 1940s,mainly due to inhomogeneous records associated with site moves of a number of stations from urban to outskirts in the early 1950s,which resulted in underestimates of the centennial warming trend.Parts of China were relatively warm around the 1940s but with different-phase interdecadal variations,while some parts were even relatively cold.This fact was supported by proxy data and could partly be explained by interdecadal changes in large-scale circulation.The effect of urbanization should have a minor contribution to the observed warming in China,although the estimates of such contributions for urban stations remain controversial.Further studies relevant to the present topic are discussed.

关 键 词：全球变暖 区域变率 百年趋势 年代际波动 城市化效应 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]