热带气旋研究和业务预报进展--第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会(IWTC-9)综述  

Advances and trends in tropical cyclone research and forecasting:An overview of the ninth World Meteorological Organization International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)

作　　者：端义宏[1] 方娟[2] 程正泉 徐晶[1] 李青青 占瑞芬 钱传海 陈静[7] 任福民[1] DUAN Yihong;FANG Juan;CHENG Zhengquan;XU Jing;LI Qingqing;ZHAN Ruifen;QIAN Chuanhai;CHEN Jing;REN Fumin(.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE,School of the Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080,China;College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,210044,China;Institute of Atmospheric Science,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;Numerical Weather Prediction Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]南京大学大气科学系中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093 [3]广州市中心气象台,广州510080 [4]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [5]复旦大学大气科学研究院,上海200438 [6]国家气象中心,北京100081 [7]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2020年第3期537-550,共14页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2015CB452800)。

摘　　要：2018年12月3-7日在美国夏威夷召开的第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会对国际热带气旋研究和预报预警业务的近期进展进行了充分回顾,并对未来的发展方向进行了系统研讨。过去4年(2015-2018年),在热带波动和对流对热带气旋生成的影响、复杂环境影响热带气旋路径转向的机理、对流和风垂直切变对热带气旋强度变化的作用机制、双眼墙形成和替换机理、热带气旋变性过程对环境条件的响应、热带气旋气候变化特征、热带气旋多平台观测技术等诸多方面的研究取得了显著进展。同时,在热带气旋生成概率预报、全球模式中热带气旋强度预报改进、热带气旋活动次季节业务预测技术发展以及热带气旋预报不确定性理论等方面也取得积极进展。在综述此次会议的相关议题后,简要讨论中国热带气旋研究和业务发展方向。The ninth World Meteorological Organization International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)was held in Hawaii,the U.S.,in December 2018.Recent global advances in tropical cyclone research and forecasting and warning operations were thoroughly reviewed,and a corresponding outlook was illustrated in this workshop.In the past four years(2015—2018),significant progress has been made in research on the effects of tropical waves and convection on tropical cyclogenesis,complex environments influencing tropical cyclone recurvature,the mechanisms of convection and vertical wind shear for tropical cyclone intensity changes,the mechanisms of concentric eyewall formation and replacement,the response of extratropical transition to environmental conditions,the characteristics of tropical cyclone climate change,and multi-platform observation techniques for tropical cyclones.In addition,there have been promising developments in the probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone formation,t he improvement of tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in global models,operational forecasting techniques for sub-seasonal tropical cyclone activity and the theory of tropical cyclone forecasting uncertainty. The outcomes of IWTC-9 will be reviewed here,and the direction of tropical cyclone research and operational development in China will be discussed as well.

关 键 词：热带气旋 研究进展 预报预警 综述 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]