WTO改革将如何影响中国经济?  

How Will WTO Reform Affect the Chinese Economy?

作　　者：郎永峰[1] 李春顶 尹翔硕[3] LANG Yong-feng;LI Chun-ding;YIN Xiang-shuo(School of Economics of Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;School of Economics of Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学经济学院,江苏南京211815 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [3]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《中国软科学》2020年第5期10-22,共13页China Soft Science

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(苏学科办[2018]3号)。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个内生性贸易不平衡的全球一般均衡数值模型系统,量化模拟并比较不同WTO改革情景对中国的潜在经济影响。模拟结果发现:中国单独退出"特殊和差别待遇(SDT)"将对中国的社会福利和GDP产生负面影响,但对制造业就业和对外贸易的影响为正;中国、巴西、印度和南非四个发展中国家同时退出"SDT"与中国单独退出的效应方向一致,但中国的受损下降;所有发展中国家都退出"SDT"中国的受损进一步减少;若WTO改革目标全部实现并推动了新一轮的全球贸易自由化,则中国的社会福利、GDP、制造业就业和对外贸易都会显著改善。Using a global general equilibrium numerical model system with endogenous trade imbalance,this paper simulates the potential economic impacts of different WTO reform scenarios on China.The simulation results show that:(1)China’s exiting"special and differential treatment"(SDT)alone will have a negative impact on China’s social welfare and GDP,but the impact on manufacturing employment and foreign trade is positive.(2)The simultaneous withdrawal of SDT from China,Brazil,India and South Africa is in line with the effect of China’s separate exit,but China’s damage has declined.If all developing countries have withdrawn from SDT,China’s losses will be further reduced.(3)If the WTO reform goals have all achieved and promoted a new round of global trade liberalization,China’s welfare,output,manufacturing employment and foreign trade will all improve significantly.

关 键 词：WTO改革 中国 一般均衡数值模型 经济影响 

分 类 号：F117[经济管理—国际贸易]