初婚年龄推迟、婚龄差对生育意愿的影响  

The Effect of Delayed Marriage Age and Couples Age Gap on the Birth Will in China

作　　者：阳义南[1] Yang Yi-nan(School of Public Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学公共管理学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《南方人口》2020年第3期21-32,共12页South China Population

基　　金：华南理工大学基本科研业务费重大项目培育(ZDPY201922);2020年广州市社科规划课题《广州市实现健康老龄化及其保障机制和优化对策研究》(2020GZGJ09)。

摘　　要：放开"二孩"政策遇冷引起了对我国夫妇生育意愿的检视。基于CGSS数据的Ordered Logit模型估计结果显示,我国青年男女的初婚年龄延迟显著降低了生育意愿,而年龄差与生育意愿之间呈倒U型关系。夫妇之间适度拉大的婚龄差具有显著更高的生育意愿,但丈夫超过妻子22岁或妻子超过丈夫4岁的生育意愿又会降低。中介模型估计结果则显示,相比初婚年龄,夫妇年龄差对生育意愿的影响更大。初婚年龄每推迟1年,生育意愿降低0.54%,而夫妇婚龄差每增大1岁,生育意愿提高0.94%。最后根据经验证据提出政策建议。The expected prevalence of only one child for many young couples under the universal two children policies calls for more studies of the fertility desires of the couples of childbearing age.The analysis of CGSS data by Ordered Logit model shows that the universal delayed initial marriage age obviously reduce the childbearing desires,meanwhile the couple’s age gap boast of a reversed U-shape relationship with the fertility desire,which means that the moderate enlarging age gap between the couple can increase the fertility desire but the age gap can depress the fertility desire in the same time if husband is more than 22 years older than wife or the wife is more than 4 years older than husband.The SEM results indicate that the couple’s age gap has a much larger effect on the fertility desires compared to the initial marriage age,i.e.every 1 year postponed initial marriage age bring about 0.54%fall of fertility desire,while every 1 year of couple’s age gap brings about 0.94%increase of fertility desire.The paper put forward some policies suggestions accordingly.

关 键 词：生育 初婚年龄 剩男剩女 婚龄差 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]