基于标准化降水指数的保定旱涝演变特征分析  

Analysis of Evolution Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Baoding Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

作　　者：魏丽欣 陈永红[1] 高万泉[1] 张良玉 刘浩[1] WEI Li-xin;CHEN Yong-hong;GAO Wan-quan;ZHANG Liang-yu;LIU Hao(Baoding Municipal Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省保定市气象局,河北保定071000

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2020年第6期81-87,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：河北省保定市科技局科研基金项目(1911ZN002)。

摘　　要：基于1979~2018年河北省保定市19个气象站的月降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析年、季的旱涝特征。利用SPSS 19.0软件,结合GIS空间技术和数理统计理论,分析了保定市旱涝时空分布规律和变率。结果表明:保定地区1979~1999年旱涝变化幅度较大,2000~2018年旱涝变化幅度较小。21世纪以来,干旱频率大于雨涝频率,保定市气候趋于干旱化。保定市春旱、夏旱呈弱增加趋势。秋涝、冬涝呈弱增加趋势。空间上分析得出,保定旱涝分为2个区域,为西部山区、浅山区和中南部平原,旱涝在2个区域总体上有相对一致的变化特征,但在某些时段也表现南北相反的特征。西部阜平、涞源在四季中易出现干旱。徐水、满城、顺平、望都、清苑、市区在四季中易形成雨涝。20世纪80年代后期、90年代中期旱涝变率较大,21世纪以来旱涝变率较90年代明显变小。4个区域(东、西、南、北)旱涝变率趋势大致相同。21世纪以来,南部旱涝变率逐渐增大。Based on the monthly precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Baoding City,Hebei Province from 1979 to 2018,Standardized precipitation index(SPI)was used to analyze the characteristics of drought and flood in the year and season.By SPSS version 19.0 software,Combining GIS space technology and mathematical statistics theory,the temporal and spatial distribution and variability of drought and flood in Baoding were analyzed.The results showed that the drought and flood in Baoding area changed greatly from 1979 to 1999.The change range of drought and flood during 2000~2018 was small.Since the 21st century,the frequency of drought is higher than that of flood.The climate of Baoding tends to be arid.Spring and summer droughts in Baoding show a weak increasing trend.Autumn waterlogging and winter waterlogging increased weakly.From the spatial analysis,Baoding is divided into two regions,It is a mountainous area and a shallow mountain area of the west,a plain in the south central part,Drought and flood have relatively consistent change characteristics in the two regions as a whole,But in some periods,it also shows the opposite characteristics of north and south.Fuping and Laiyuan in the West are prone to drought in the four seasons.Xushui,Mancheng,Shunping,Wangdu,Qingyuan and urban areas are prone to rain and waterlogging in the four seasons.In the late 1980s and mid-1990s,the rate of drought and flood was relatively high,Since the 21st century,the change rate of drought and flood is obviously smaller than that in the 1990s.The change trend of drought and flood in the four regions(East,West,South and North)is basically the same.Since the 21st century,the rate of drought and flood in the South has gradually increased.

关 键 词：保定 旱涝 时空特征 标准化降水指数(SPI) 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]