From severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus to 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak:similarities in the early epidemics and prediction of future trends  

作　　者：Ze-Liang Chen Wen-Jun Zhang Yi Lu Cheng Guo Zhong-Min Guo Cong-Hui Liao Xi Zhang Yi Zhang Xiao-Hu Han Qian-Lin Li Jia-Hai Lu 

机构地区：[1]One Health Center,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China [2]Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China,Ministry of Education,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110866,China [3]Department of Biological Science and Technology,School of Life Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China [4]Department of Health Law,Policy and Management,School of Public Health,Boston University,Boston,MA 02215,USA [5]Center for Infection and Immunity,Mailman School of Public Health,Columbia University,New York,NY 10032,USA [6]Animal Experiment Center,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China

出　　处：《Chinese Medical Journal》2020年第9期1112-1114,共3页中华医学杂志（英文版）

基　　金：This work was supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program Projects of China(No.2017YFD0500305);the National Key Program for Infectious Disease of China;The authors thank the collaborators who participated in the original investigations during the 2002 to 2003 SARS outbreak.(No.2018ZX10101002-002);the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China(No.U1808202);Guangdong Province Key Area R&D Plan Project(No.2018B020241002);the Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Project(No.2018B020207013)。

摘　　要：Emerging infectious diseases represent a serious threat for human public health worldwide.[1,2]The 2019 novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)caused a pneumonia outbreak,which is spreading around the country and has affected 32 provinces and regions of China as of January 27,2020.[3,4]Countries outside China,including Japan,the United States,Thailand,and South Korea,have also reported cases imported from other countries.[5]With the joint efforts of Chinese scientists,health workers,and related departments,the pathogen causing this epidemic was quickly identified as a new type of coronavirus,10 days after the first official report.After confirming the pathogen,specific detection methods were rapidly developed,with improvement in etiological diagnosis.As of January 22,2020,it has been confirmed that the new coronavirus came from wild bats and belonged to group 2b of the beta coronavirus,which includes severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus(SARS-CoV).[6]Although 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV belong to the same sub-group of beta coronaviruses,the similarity at the genome level is only 80%,[7,8]meaning that the new virus is genetically different from SARS-CoV[Supplementary Figure 1A,http://links.lww.com/CM9/A209].Rapid discovery of the causative agent and development of diagnostic reagents demonstrated that technology has greatly improved in the 17 years since the SARS outbreak.However,no effective anti-viral medication or vaccines are available for this new virus,and many of its aspects remain to be explored.Similar to the SARS outbreak,this outbreak also occurred during the spring festival,the most important of the Chinese traditional festivals,when 3 billion people travel throughout the country.[9]This unexpectedly provides beneficial conditions for the transmission of this highly infectious disease and correspondingly poses great challenges for the prevention and control of the outbreak.

关 键 词：prevention PREDICTION FIGURE 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]