政策干预对银川市空气质量的影响研究  

A Study on Impact of Policy Intervention on the Air Quality Index in Yinchuan

作　　者：纳艳萍 NA Yan-ping(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学数学统计学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2020年第9期243-249,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：宁夏高等学校科学研究项目(NGY2017028)。

摘　　要：为了研究银川市政府2017年12月施行的限行、减排措施对空气质量的影响,利用干预分析理论,建立了PM10和PM2.5的干预模型.干预模型表明:限行、减排措施对空气质量的改善非常明显.最后利用干预模型预测了2019年1月至3月PM10和PM2.5的指数,PM10和PM2.5预测精度分别为84%和91.2%.To investigate the influence of traffic control and reduction policy established by government of Yinchuan city in December 2017,two intervention models using air quality data,more specially,PM 10 and PM2.5 data,were build based on the intervention analysis theory.It is shown that air quality is significantly improved after releasing the policy.The two intervention models were then applied to forecast PM10 and PM2.5 index of Yinchuan from January to March in 2019.From the results,the accuracy of prediction for PM 10 and PM2.5 are 84%,91.2%,respectively.

关 键 词：时间序列 干预分析 空气质量指数(AQI) 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]