小麦最低收购价政策的托市效应研究——基于双重差分法的实证检验  

Research on the market-supporting effect of the minimum wheat purchase price policy——An empirical test based on double difference method

作　　者：赵和楠 陈池波[2] 赵炜涛 ZHAO He-nan;CHEN Chi-bo;ZHAO Wei-tao(Business School,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,Henan 450001;School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,Hubei 430073;Risk Management Department,Bank of Zhengzhou,Zhengzhou,Henan 450000)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,河南郑州450001 [2]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [3]郑州银行风险管理部,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《价格月刊》2020年第6期1-7,共7页

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“粮食安全背景下新型粮食经营主体的财政支持政策效果及优化研究”(编号:17YJC790207);国家社会科学基金重点项目“新常态下农业支持政策执行情况评估与执行机制优化研究”(编号:15AJY014)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：运用双重差分法检验了2006年以来中国小麦最低收购价政策的托市效应。结果显示,小麦最低收购价政策对政策执行区小麦市场销售价格产生了显著正向影响,即该政策存在托市效应;将政策执行时间分解为三个时间段进行检验后发现,托市效应具有动态稳定性。进一步分析发现托市效应的存在会引致如下问题:一是提高小麦加工企业经营成本,助推小麦进口量增加;二是积累小麦收储企业库存压力,加大政府财政支出负担;三是扭曲小麦市场销售价格形成机制,强化粮农政策依赖性。采取渐进式方式逐步推进小麦最低收购价政策向目标价格政策转变,实现"市场定价、价补分离",是深化小麦收储制度改革、保障中国粮食安全的关键举措。The double difference method has been used to test the market-supporting effect of the minimum wheat purchase price policy in China since 2006.The results show that the minimum wheat purchase price policy has a significant positive effect on the wheat market sales price in the policy implementation area,that is to say,the policy has a market-supporting effect,which has a dynamic stability after the policy implementation time is divided into three time periods for testing.Further analysis reveals that the existence of the market-supporting effect can cause the following problems:first,it increases the operating costs of wheat processing enterprises and boosts the increase in wheat imports;second,it accumulates the inventory pressure of wheat storage enterprises and increases the burden of government expenditure;third,it distorts the formation mechanism of wheat market sales price and strengthens the dependence of food and agriculture policy.It is a key measure to deepen the reform of wheat purchasing and storage system and ensure China’s food security to gradually promote the transformation from the minimum wheat purchase price policy to the target price policy and realize"market pricing,price-supplement separation".

关 键 词：小麦最低收购价 托市效应 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]